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| Coasting: Zambia celebrate in February this year |
TONIGHT at 8.30pm, all will be revealed. The Chief Albert
Luthuli International Convention Centre in Durban will show its balls and the
African Cup of Nations, hosted in South Africa from January 19 to February 10,
will show its true colours.
It’s only eight months since Zambia’s epic triumph in Gabon
- the change of calendar from even years to odd means everything has had to be
sorted out in 12 months rather than 24. After a condensed qualification process
which doesn’t even allow group winners automatic access to the 29th
edition of CAF’s continental showdown, nobody doubts AFCON will be tough.
Tonight we find out just how tough when 16 balls are placed
in four seeded goldfish balls to reveal who will play who on the road to the
final at Soccer City.
The dream draw for Group A? South Africa, Angola, Niger and
Cape Verde. The nightmare? Bafana, Nigeria, Algeria and lowly-ranked sleeping giants DR Congo.
We can only pray that the days of FIFA-sanctioned warmed
balls and fixed draws are behind us. But whoever comes out with South Africa,
qualification will not be easy - especially if Didier Drogba and the Toure brothers are fit to play for the Ivory Coast. What we do know is that Bafana Bafana will
kick-off the competition as the top-seeds in Group A with the opening game at
Soccer City on January 19.
Their next two games will take place at Durban’s Moses
Mabhida Stadium. Should they top Group A, they will then face a quarter-final in
Durban too. But that would be expecting a lot from a side rated 10th
of the qualifiers according to the latest FIFA/CAF rankings (see table at the
foot of this blog).
Though Bafana Bafana have not lost a game against African
opposition on home soil since Guinea in 2008 (a 15-game list that includes Zambia,
Senegal and Ivory Coast), Gordon Igesund has his work cut out if he is to
complete the first of his harsh requirements in the job of national coach.
Igesund, with defeats against Brazil and Poland in direct
contrast to wins over Mozambique and Kenya in his four friendlies since he
assumed control from Pitso Mosimane and caretaker Steve Khompela, will have
Bafana’s credentials tested by Zambia at Soccer City on November 14.
With African opponents yet to be lined up for friendlies on December
23 in Durban and Johannesburg on January 13, SAFA today have confirmed a
friendly against Norway in Cape Town on January 8.
According to the powers that be at SAFA, Igesund HAS to
reach the AFCON semi-finals – and he may find the going tougher than expected
despite the absence of seven-times winners Egypt and four-time winners
Cameroon.
More than 2,000 guests – including President Jacob Zuma –
will fill the ICC tonight to see the deeply questionable CAF head Issa Hayatou oversee
the draw which will see one team from each pot selected for the four qualifying groups.
Top seeds: South Africa, Zambia, Ghana, Ivory Coast.
Second seeds: Mali, Tunisia, Angola, Nigeria.
Third seeds: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Morocco, Niger
Fourth seeds: Togo, Cape Verde, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia.
That means South Africa could face a nightmare qualification
featuring a resurgent Nigeria, Algeria/Morocco and DR Congo, raising the ghost
of 2010, when Bafana became the first World Cup hosts to fail to qualify for
the knock-out phases, going out on goal difference despite a shock win over
1998 Champions France.
The easiest route? I’d say Angola, Niger, the lowest ranked
team in the tournament, and Cape Verde, shock conquerors of Cameroon in the
final qualifying round.
If Togo don’t secure the release of Emmanuel Adebayor from
Tottenham in January, they could be a plum fourth pot draw too, while Burkina
Faso in pot three would be relief of sorts.
However the draw turns out, it’s worth listening to South
Africa’s greatest footballing export when it comes to judging Igesund’s chances
of success.
Lucas Radebe, in Durban for tonight’s draw, told CAF: “It’s going
to be too difficult for Gordon. There’s a lot of expectation but I don’t think
we can win it.
“People look back to the 1996 winning squad and what we
achieved, but a lot has changed since that time. It's unfair on the current
team.
“You look at 1996, we had a stable team. We had been
together for a long time and had gelled well leading up to the tournament. Now
there’s been chopping and changing of players.
“There’s a new manager as well. Yes, we are playing at home
and naturally that should be an advantage. But if we get out of our group we
would have done extremely well.
“It will take a lot of commitment and sacrifice for any team
to win this competition. Look at a big team like Cameroon, they didn’t even
qualify. The Cup of Nations is difficult to predict.”
"Once you’re in the knockout phase anything can happen.
You can get all the way to the final but I don’t think we can win it.”
But Radebe told CAF online: “There has been a lot of criticism
levelled at Bafana, but for next year, every South African will have to give
the team full support. Home support is the biggest incentive we can have. It
will surely uplift the morale of the players.”
Amen, Lucas.
FIFA WORLD AND AFRICAN RANKINGS OF THE
16 QUALIFIERS:
16
1 Côte
d'Ivoire
24
2
Algeria
27
3
Mali
31
4
Ghana
41
6
Zambia
45
7
Tunisia
51
10 Cape Verde
Islands
63
13 Nigeria
75
18 Morocco
76
19 South
Africa
83
20
Angola
91
23 Burkina
Faso
93
24
Togo
103
30
Congo DR
118
33
Ethiopia
137
42
Niger
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