How South Africa can STILL qualify for CAF 2012... even if they don't top Group G

A huge sporting weekend for South Africa could yet end in twin-pronged success for the Rainbow Nation’s rugby and football teams.

Though the Springboks face a daunting task overcoming Australia in the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals on Sunday morning in Wellington, Bafana Bafana face a seemingly impossible task in qualifying for the African Nations Cup on Saturday night.

With group leaders Niger set to face an Egypt Under 23 side – new coach Bob Bradley from the US is unlikely to encourage a major upset – South Africa’s clash with Sierra Leone becomes almost meaningless in terms of qualifying as Group G leaders.

But the message to Pitso Mosimane’s men in Nelspruit tomorrow night is clear: Win by five or six and qualification as one of two “best runners-up” could yet be gained.

This morning the extremely capable Minister of Sport and Recreation, Filkile “Bliksem Hulle” Mbalula confirmed the the game will be televised live on the SABC1 at 5pm on Saturday evening after a payment of £3m to SAFA. It’s a must-watch... a must-win – even if Niger beat Egypt to clinch the group.

Here’s how it works: The ten group leaders qualify automatically but (whisper it) the two best runners-up will also travel to the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations finals.

It’s a complicated formula where matches against the bottom sides in the pool – seven-times winners Egypt in Group G - do not count. CAF were forced to make that move after Mauritania withdrew from Group F, leaving them with just three teams in the pool.

Consquently, South Africa’s hard-fought home win over the Pharoahs, courtesy of Katlego Mphela’s last-minute strike, and the away draw in Cairo will NOT count towards Baf Baf’s tally.

That means Pitso’s men go into their final game against Sierra Leone with four points and places them SIXTH in the current table. But a big win over Sierra Leone, coupled with some fairly probable results elsewhere, could leave South Africa in the top two runners-up positions, ensuring qualification.

SuperSport.com offer this explanation of how things can pan out for South Africa if they win in Mpumalanga and move to seven points:

Sudan (seven points from three games): Sudan play Ghana at home and a defeat will see South Africa move above them on goal difference. A draw will see Sudan retain their place above Bafana, while a win will mean Ghana finish second in the pool with seven points and it will come down to goal difference as well (Ghana are currently on +5).

Libya (seven points from three games): Libya are away in Zambia where a defeat would see Bafana move ahead of them. A draw will mean Libya maintain their position ahead of Bafana, while a win for them against the Zambians would move Chipolopolo to second but with only six points and below Bafana.

Angola (six points from four games): Angola cannot improve their points tally as they play wooden-spoonists Guinea Bissau, so Bafana would move ahead of them with a win.

Central African Republic (five points from four games): These calculations assume that Morocco will beat Tanzania at home. If CAR then draw in Algeria, they will finish second in the pool with six points and behind Bafana. If they lose in Algeria by more than two goals, the Algerians will rise to second and will have six points. If CAR win in Algeria then they will stay on six points as Algeria will finish bottom and the points from the match will not count towards their tally.

Nigeria (four points from three matches): If Nigeria beat Guinea at home 1-0 or by two clear goals then they will top their Group B and Guinea will drop to second with nine points and above Bafana (that is unless Madagascar pull off a highly unlikely win in Ethiopia which would drop Ethiopia to seven points). If Nigeria draw at home they will stay second with five points. If Nigeria lose, they remain on four points.

Zimbabwe (four points from three matches): If Zimbabwe win in Cape Verde and Mali win in Liberia, then Zimbabwe will finish second on seven points, and would need to boost their goal-difference by winning by three clear goals. If Zimbabwe draw in Cape Verde they can still only finish second and would have five points. If Zimbabwe win and Mali draw or lose in Liberia, they will drop to second and at best can finish with six points, below Bafana.

HOW THEY STAND

Grp Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts

I Sudan 3 2 1 0 3 0 +3 7

C Libya 3 2 1 0 2 0 +2 7

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

J Angola 4 2 0 2 4 5 -1 6

D CAR 4 1 2 1 3 3 0 5

B Nigeria 3 1 1 1 6 3 +3 4

G South Africa 3 1 1 1 3 2 +1 4

A Zimbabwe 3 1 1 1 2 2 0 4

F Gambia 3 1 0 2 4 5 –1 3

H Burundi 3 0 2 1 2 3 –1 2

E Cameroon 3 0 2 1 1 2 –1 2

In an All Black world without King Carter, Slade is the pretender: your guide to the RWC Quarter-finals

In an All Black world without the majestic Dan Carter, the commonly-criticised Colin Slade is king.

While Rugby World Cup hosts New Zealand remain mired in gloom after Carter, 29, injured himself in training last week, the All Black assistant coach Wayne Smith moved quickly to maintain morale in a rugby-mad nation aching for a glimpse of the Webb-Ellis trophy since 1987.

Smith, not short on hyperbole, stepped in to assure the krushed Kiwis: “Colin is not too different from Daniel really. He's got a good skill set. He's a brave kid physically, he's strong in his defensive channel.

“We have not lowered the bar at all. There is a lot of belief in Colin. In my experience if you walk in the company of people who believe in you, then you can achieve anything and our expectations are really high. "

Methinks he does reassureth too much before Sunday’s quarter-final against the rugged outsiders Argentina.

Slade, 23, utterly failed to shine in his two starts in the famous black jersey against Japan and Canada. He has come on during comfortable victories over Tonga and France. In that final pool game against Canada, scrum-half Piri Weepu landed a perfect four out of four kicks while Slade, after scoring just five out of ten, was left to spent the last 25 minutes out on the wing.

Though a natural No9, Weepu is a popular choice to replace Carter as kicker, but Smith insists that despite the loss of the “world’s best fly-half”: "Our plans remain the same, expectations are exactly the same, belief in the squad is exactly the same, so we don't see that anything has changed."

What Smith neglects to mention is the truth. Slade has grown up in Carter’s bootiful shadow, and came through Christchurch Boy’s High School five years behind his fly-half rival. He was forced to move to the Highlanders from his hometown Crusaders in the Super 15 this season. Other promising Kiwi fly-halves like Nick Evans and Stephen Donald have headed for Europe and given up trying to be Carter’s stand-in.

That’s why Aaron Cruden, the 22-year-old fly-half for the Manawatu Turbos in the National Provincial Championship was the “official replacement” when Carter’s left adductor longus tendon snapped after just four kicks in training last week. Slade made his All Black debut when he replaced Cruden against Australia in the Tri-Nations last year. Neither man is truly considered to be a Carter in the making. Slade’s performance in this year’s Tri-Nations defeat against the Springboks in Port Elizabeth proved that point.

Graham Henry’s post-traumatic quotes are closer to the truth: “It's devastating. This was going to be Daniel’s pinnacle, this was his scene, this World Cup in New Zealand. It was going to be his big occasion."

New Zealand, favourites at this World Cup as they are before most global rugby contests, last played the Argies five years ago. They won 25-19 in Buenos Aires and have been spying on the Pumas in training this week. Smith admits: “Argentina’s entire game comes from what they do up front. We are expecting a huge test.

"They are actually pretty smart as well, they have probably given away the least penalties - they are going to attack us."

Wing Cory Jane and full-back Israel Dagg, both injured in the penultimate qualifying win over a below-par France, are both expected to recover for the Argentina game, which follows South Africa – with batterproof Bakkies Botha fit again – playing against an Australian side shoved into the “southern” half of the draw by giantkilling Ireland.

The northern hemisphere clashes see England, under-fire for their off-field activities, planning to play the off-form Jonny Wilkinson at fly-half with Toby Flood at inside centre following injury to the much-maligned Mike Tindall. Opponents France, in even more disarray than the English, will arrive more in hope that belief though Marc Lievremont insists: “The World Cup starts here.”

Perhaps the most attractive quarter-final will be played first in the Wellington biscuit tin, where Ireland – with the ageless Ronan O’Gara once again the indisputable fulcrum – take on an injury-free Wales, who produced a devastating 66-0 win over Fiji to complete their qualification.

Welsh Stephen Jones insists bravely: "What's important is that we implement that and try and manipulate defences so that we can play a great style of rugby."

My predictions on what will be a surprisingly low scoring weekend with drop goals rather than tries at a premium:

Saturday

Wellington: Ireland 15, Wales 12 (6am in England, 7am in South Africa)

The Irish came in to the World Cup on the back of four depressing warm-up defeats – but topped their group for the first time in RWC history thanks to the shock win over Australia and the final 36-6 thumping of Six Nations rival Italy. Wales crushed Fiji to finish runners-up to South Africa – they were unlucky to lose by a point to the champions – and have looked the most positive of the Northern Hemisphere sides. Given that Wales beat Ireland 19-13 – thanks to a sneaky line-out move which put Mike Philips away for the decisive try – in their last Six Nations clash, most pundits are backing Wales. But with Declan Kidney upping the stakes, the experienced Irish may just have the edge if Wales attempt to play an expansive game.

Auckland: England 12, France 6 (8.30am in England, 9.30am in South Africa)

Billed as the weakest of the quarter-finals, this is all about French unpredictability and English stiff upper-lip. History records centuries of war between the cross-channel rivals and this will be no different. French veteran Imanol Harinordoquy issued a deeply sarcastic “I love England” during the build-up this week, and added he expects: “Lots of fight, lots of kicking maybe.” After the shock defeat against Tonga, it’s hard to know if Les Bleus will be stung by the criticisms and destroy the English... or whether they’ll revert to type and surrender, as their football team did in the last FIFA World Cup. Ultimately, these are two teams struggling for form and cohesion. With Wilkinson and Flood ear-marked to start, England will kick the French to death as they did with Wilko and Mike Catt in the soggy 2003 semi-final.

Sunday

Wellington: South Africa 22 Australia 15 (6am in England, 7am in South Africa)

The Wallabies beat the Springboks home and away in the Tri-Nations, but neither side will set much store by those results, played out with the World Cup foremost in the national consciousness. Truth is, Australia have yet to recover from the shock defeat against Ireland and Quade Cooper has yet to prove he’s the fly-half to set the team alight after guiding the Queensland Reds to the Super 15 crown this year. The Boks, unimpressive against Wales in their opening game, have put together a reasonable run since though they will miss the gargantuan boot of Frans Steyn. Pieter de Villiers has handled his injuries well, the camp is cheerful... and in Morne Steyn they have proven match winner. But it’s up front, where living legends Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha and Danie Russouw a enjoying their last hurrah, that this one will be won. If the old men stay strong, the Boks will do it.

Auckland: New Zealand 22, Argentina 12

Richie Macaw’s foot injury has been subjected to almost as much scrutiny as Dan Carter’s groin in a host nation desperate for global conquest. If Macaw is fully-fit, the All Blacks will Haka their way all the way to the final. Given enough possession, the Kiwi back line is the most impressive you’ll find. Israel Dagg, Sonny Bill Williams, Ma’a Nonu and Cory Jane are all capable of destroying the Argies – but if the Pumas front up and restrict possession they may make it difficult for the best side in the tournament. Ultimately, this World Cup is headed for a popular Ireland v New Zealand final... but neither the Springboks, the Wallabies nor the Poms will allow that to happen without a fight.