Pick your bloodbath: London 2012 or South Africa 2010... read the stats, make up your mind. Feel free to comment

GUN crime in London has risen sharply. There were 429 more offences than the year before - a rise of 14.1 per cent - according to the Metropolitan Police.

According to the London Evening Standard, knife crime has also risen in London, with 266 more crimes in the last financial year, taking the annual tally to 12,611. A total of 117 killings took place in the London – yet this is where the Olympics will be held in 2012.

Yesterday, the Met Police commissioner Sir Paul Stephenson was forced to respond to two recent incidents - Nathan Allen was shot dead in New Cross and 16-year-old Nick Pearton was stabbed to death in a Sydenham park.

He said: “These problems are of an old age. What are the real issues that force young people to choose the wrong family - the gang family rather than the family at home?

"Addressing these social problems is the key. These are jobs for the politicians at local level and the new government. I don't do social engineering, I'm a cop."

Thanks Sir Paul. Very reassuring before London’s greatest sports event in 50 years. Here in South Africa, where local Police Commissioner Bheki Cele is 23 days short of hosting the 2010 World Cup, it’s a different story.

Though the British press – and their international counterparts – have been quick to predict “a bloodbath” for fans in a Rainbow Nation still trying to right the wrongs of post-Apartheid, post-colonial South Africa, the feeling is a lot more positive.

General Cele told me as we talked in Durban’s magnificent new Moses Mabhida Stadium last week: “Everything is in place for a peaceful World Cup. We will do all we can to assure the safety of fans visiting South Africa. And I know all about your England football fans and what they are capable of.”

Cele is a big, tough-looking bloke. But he has a sparkle in his eye. That’s probably because his much-maligned nation offers statistics to back up his argument. As the red tops in London warn England’s WAGs to stay home and instil fear in every football fan, I can provide this from Johan Burger, senior researcher in the crime and justice programme at South Africa's Institute for Security Studies.

He told the BBC this week: "Contrary to what many people think, the murder rate, while still extremely high, is down by about 44% since 1995. That's a huge decrease.

“What is important to understand about our high crime rate is that we know from research that approximately 80% of our murders happen within a very specific social context, mostly between people that know one another."

Given that South Africa’s newspapers are unlikely to call for a boycott of London 2012 given the rise in violent crime, perhaps it’s time to give South Africa a break. Perhaps the British tabloids should give the 2010 World Cup a little positive push as the days tick down to the big kick-off on June 11.

They won’t of course. It doesn’t sell newspapers. But they should. I’ve been in South Africa for three weeks and yet to be greeted with anything less than a smile walking the streets of Johannesburg and Durban. I was the only white guy watching Amazulu play Sundowns in the big semi-final at the ABSA Stadium last Saturday. I didn’t even have a Vuvuzela to defend myself with.

But all I got was smiles. Everywhere I go, I fail to witness bloodbaths. I have hardly been mugged at all. The only crime stories are fourth-hand tales from embittered white folk of a certain age who long for the bad old days of Apartheid.

Let’s finish with this: “It is clear that the biggest concern here is safety and violence, and we are doing everything we can in this area to see a reduction." That quote comes from London’s police commissioner, not South Africa’s.

Second Test: England win by an innings and 98. Clinical. Strauss: Our best ever

CLINICAL. Ruthless. Emphatic. Words you wouldn't have associated with England's bumbling cricketers in the past. Words which spring to mind after this morning's innings and 98-run win over South Africa.

The second Test wrapped up by lunch-time. Incredible. The Barmy Army have just disappated under a sky suddenly clear. Around 1,500-strong, they sang for an hour to the England dressing room (pictured above). Not since 1964 have England beaten South Africa by an innings, when a certain Geoffrey Boycott, next to me in the commentary box, scored 73 here.

Andrew Strauss, whose blessed hand I have just shaken, said: "That has to be one of our finest Tests in my time. It's certainly the biggest away win I can remember. We always felt in control."

And Graeme Swann, Man of the Match for the second time in two Tests, was in top form after taking 5-54 and 9-164 in the match. He got five and scored a Test best 85 in Centurion, where England hung on to draw with one wicket in hand.

Now up to third in the world rankings, he said: "It's been a dream 12 months for me. I'll take two Man of the Match awards thank you and I'll go on as long as I can. I knew with four bowlers I would have to do the donkey work. It's nice to pick up a few wickets along the way!"

A few wickets? He's on fire, turning the ball a foot on a dead pitch, taking wickets with his first furious over four times in two Tests. The man who, as Ian Bell said last night, "always makes things happen".

If our footballers can perform like this here in June next year, the World Cup will be a doddle. This South African side, packed with real talent, simply couldn't live with Swannie and his Nottinghamshire team-mate Stuart Broad. England, it has been suggested, could go into the New Year Test in Cape Town next week with two bowlers. A bit like Fabio Capello picking nine strikers!

South Africa knew they had to win this four match series 2-0 to go back to the top of the Test rankings ahead of India. Now one of the world's finest sides are 1-0 down with two Tests to play. And England, a modest fifth in the rankings, are ready to add a series in South Africa to their summer Ashes win. Incredible. And Swann wasn't slow to remind us of that fact.

South Africa, 76-6 overnight, did all they could. But Broad (4-43 today and nine wickets so far in the series) got rid of the dangerous Mark Boucher while Swann accounted for Mornel Morkel, Paul Harris and Dale Steyn as South Africa were skittled for 133.

Their captain Graeme Smith, struggling manfully to mask his disappointment, mentioned the words "bounce" and "back" five times in his post-match chat. But he also admitted his team had "not been up to the standards the country expects".

I'm not sure that's fair on his team. Swann in this form is one of the finest finger spinners in the world. On wickets taken this year in Tests, he's second only to Australia's Mitchell Johnson this year - and Broad is third.

Patrick Compton, son of the England Test legend Denis, has been covering cricket for the Natal Mercury at Kingsmead for decades. He just told me this track may have to be re-defined after Swann's performance. It never takes spin... until this week, until Swann.

Strauss said of his impish companion: "It's hard to compliment Swannie when he's sitting next to me, but his impact on this team on the field and off it has been huge. As a bowler, he always attacks, always gets a wicket, even in the first innings. That's rare in Test cricket.

"In the dressing room he's the perfect man to lift things when we're down. He's helped a lot of players get back on their feet after a hard day."

And Swann, deadpan, told us why Strauss has helped turned England into a bunch of winners: "He's brought honesty, keeps it simple, works hard. He's phlegmatic. And everybody likes him. It's good to have a captain you can take the piss out of in the slips. And he comes back with some too! He gets grumpy sometimes, especially when he drops catches in practice like he did this morning... but he recovers quickly!"

As we pack up and head to Cape Town for the New Year, this is an England side at the peak of their powers. Strauss warned: "I hate to put a dampener on proceedings after that, it feels wrong. But we were beaten heavily at Headingley in the summer by the Australians and we came back to win the series.

"We expect South Africa to come back at us hard. They're a good side. But this result, after hanging on for that draw in the first Test at Centurion, has certainly filled us with confidence.

"Alastair Cook and Ian Bell have scored much-needed centuries. Cookie grafted at it and Belly when he plays his natural game is one of the finest batsmen in the world.

"If we've got the opposition scratching their heads about their selection, it just shows we're doing our job."

While England sweat on the state of Paul Collingwood's dislocated left index finger - they don't know yet if he'll be fit for Newlands starting on January 3 and have called up Hampshire's Michael Carberry as cover - the last word must go to the swaggering Swann who offers this explanation of his rise in fortunes: "Straussie dropped me out in Jamaica at the start of the year and I just thought I'd show him!"

Second Test, final day: Two down, two to go. All over by lunch. Surely?

ENGLAND now need two more wickets on the final day of the second Test at Kingsmead. The county team-mates Stuart Broad and Graeme Swann have once more tied the home side up in Notts on the final day of the second Test, taken a wicket each.

Both now have four, South Africa are 118-8 still needing 112 to make England bat again.

South Africa needed another 155 when they finished on 76/6 last night - the umpires revised the score after play.

There was a bogus overthrow. The South African journalists in the box are calling, jokingly, for a replay. One precious run has been taken from Ian Bell's 141. One of unwanted single has been taken from Makhaya Ntini's bowling analysis of 29-4-115-0.

It won't make a difference. Graeme Swann has just got Morne Morkel plumb LBW, 86-7. Then, on review, Broad got Mark Boucher, clearly caught off the glove by Prior for 29 to make it 108-8.

This will be over by lunchtime and then it can rain as much as it likes and the umpires can wave their light meters about all they like.

Begone all those who said last night: "We can't lose from here." Of course we can't! It was always a win. Sure, Dale Steyn and JP Duminy turned the Boxing Day Test against Australian in Melbourne last year from a surefire defeat into an epic victory.

But not here, not now. England are made of sterner stuff.

Boucher and Morkel walked out to resume the partnership they began when their nation was teetering on the brink at 50-6 with the captain Graeme Smith shuffling back to the pavilion last night.

They added 36. As Graeme Swann began the second over of the morning, it was overcast but bright. England had a short leg, a gully, slip and a silly point. One squeezed through the gap. Agony. But then escstasy, Morkel goes, bang in front. Swann always takes a wicket in his first over on this tour. As Ian Bell said last night: "He can always make things happen, he's proved it again and again." In fact, Swann has struck four times in his first over and we're only two Tests in.

Boucher was next, gloving to Prior off the superb Broad (pictured above, asking unpicked Adil Rashid for a drink this morning) who is consistently beating the bat.

Paul Collingwood, who dislocated his left index finger in the warm-up yesterday, is apparently going to be fit for the New Year Test but Luke Wright is on for him. I've just seen him watching, powerless to intervene, from the dressing room.

Don't worry Colly. England are heading to Cape Town 1-0 up in the series. Fact.

My worst day: Steyn. My best day in an England shirt: Bell

SOUTH AFRICA'S Dale Steyn sat in the bowels of the Kingsmead Stadium tonight looking slightly shell-shocked and said: "Yes, that has to be the worst day of my cricketing career."

A few minutes later Ian Bell, with 141 to his name plus a sharp catch at short leg, said: "That's got to be one of my best days in an England shirt."

And that sums it up nicely after a sensational day four of the second Test in Durban when England ran up a score of 575-9 declared and then sent South Africa plunging to 76-6, still 156 runs short of making England bat again if they are to save this pulsating second Test.

Steyn did his best to put a positive spin on his nation's terrible demise. He recalled last year's Boxing Day Test in Melbourne, where South Africa were in a similar state, he and JP Duminy produced a great late rally and turned the game around.

Steyn, who got his Test-best 76 that day and a second-best 47 in the first innings here, grinned: "I'll be watching videos of Melbourne tonight. We just have to go out and try to stay there tomorrow. Morne Morkel can bat a bit and Mark Boucher is one of the best wicket-keeper-batsmen in the world.

"But to be honest, the weather is our best chance."

Fair play to the South African, it was a thankless task talking to the media today.

Bell, whose century today was described as "career-saving" by his former Warwickshire county team-mate, said: "Of course Dale's right. I knew I was under the pump. It was very satisfying. Nobody expected things to go as perfectly today as they have."

After Bell's efforts were added to Alastair Cook's century, plus fifties from Andrew Strauss, Paul Collingwood - who picked up a dislocated left index finger in the warm-up and didn't field - and Matt Prior, the bowlers had the perfect platform.

At 27-0, South African captain Graeme Smith and fellow opener Ashwell Prince looked comfortable enough. Then former Ashes-winner Matthew Hoggard (in his pink shirt, pictured above under Jimmy Saville's flag) joined the Barmy Army. And when England called for Swann's turn in the 10th over, Hoggy joined the Army with a rendition of their old classic: "Never trust a spinner."

Swannie's second ball resulted in a sharp bat-pad catch for Bell and the collapse began.

Half-a-dozen wickets for 23 runs in 12 overs with county team-mates Broad (3-18) and Swann (3-22) tying 'em up in Notts.

Bell said: "Swannie always seems to make things happen. He's proved that again and again on this tour. And when Broadie's bowling like that, with his height, he's very hard to play. They're brilliant together."

Usually reliable Proteas like Hashim Amla, Jacques Kallis and AB De Villiers folded under the pressure, barely offering shots. JP Duminy went first ball, getting an inside edge to Broad as the South Africans quacked up. And then captain Smith fell lbw to Swann, made a desperate request for a review, and departed, head bowed.

Only the resistance of Mark Boucher (20 not out) and Morkel (7) prevented a quick finish... and then the umpires called play off for bad light at 4.22pm local time with 16 overs left in the day. The floodlights had been on since 3.15pm. That's what it's like here, what England have to watch for tomorrow.

The forecast? Partly cloudy, showers in the evening. Bell said: "We'll be fired up for the first ball," but Steyn painted the nightmare scenario for England: "Who knows in cricket? We could get a few runs and it could be England hanging on at 50-5, 50-6 at the end of the day."

Surely not. Four wickets. That's all they need to head off to Cape Town for the New Year Test with a 1-0 lead in the four-match

series. Pray for sunshine.Or as David "Bumble" Lloyd has just twittered: "Call to prayer in Mosque opposite hotel."

England fire as South Africa are tied up in Notts... with a little help from Hoggy

MATTHEW HOGGARD did the trick for England today. With a little help from the Barmy Army. Yes Hoggy, the Ashes-winning former Yorkshire paceman, played his part today as Andrew Strauss's mighty men took a stranglehold on the second Test in muggy Durban.

Did I say muggy? England have mugged the mugs on day four, rattling up a mammoth 575-9 declared to take a 231 lead over the hosts, then reducing the South Africans to 76-6. Yes, that's SIX. They still need another 156 to make England bat again. Incredible scenes, amazing stuff.

Half-a-dozen wickets for 23 runs in 12 overs with county team-mates Stuart Broad (3-18) and Graeme Swann (3-22) tying 'em up in Notts

Hoggy, in his pink South African Broadcasting Corporation top, chose the perfect moment to join the Barmy Army, massed in the south corner of the East Stand. South Africa were 27-0 after nine overs and apparently cruising.

While Hoggy stood beneath Vic "Jimmy Saville" Flower's waving Union Jack (see picture above, you can just make him out, I'm no photographer!) the volume rose and rose. First "Jerusalem", then "There's Only One Matthew Hoggard". Then, as England turned to Graeme Swann, they began a chorus of "Never Trust A Spinner", with Hoggy, the subject of a thousand flashing cameras and Test Match Special, in full voice.

And lo, it came to pass on Swann's second ball of the day Ashwell Prince failed to deal with the turn, getting an inside edge on to his pad which was brilliantly picked up by Ian Bell, back in his favourite position at short leg. Bell, who scored a magnificent 141 to give England the impetus today, went potty. Some catch. Some bloke.

Suddenly South Africa, who had been cruising, were vulnerable. Hoggy had worked the magic.

And it only got better. Hashim Amla, the local hero who refuses to profit from his side's brewery sponsors because of his Muslim roots, went just before tea, bowled by the magnificent Swann for 6. Two failures on his home ground. Unthinkable for Amla, whose century turned the drawn first Test South Africa's way in Centurion.

With Jacques Kallis joining captain Graeme Smith, South Africa were firmly up against the wall. But these were their two go-to guys, the old warhorses. Stubborn, reliable. And then came the ball of the day. Stuart Broad, in from the Umgeni end, got the ball to nip back a veritable mile off the seam and Kallis's off-stump flew out of the ground. The poor bloke didn't even get to play a shot. Did it happen because the tide was in? Locals say it helps. And it was high tide at 1.40pm.

What a moment though, what a turning of the tide. The Barmy Army lapped it up. South Africa were 40-3 and sinking fast.

AB De Villiers was next, he got out twice. First he survived on review after touching Swann to Prior - the replay showed deviation though apparently not conclusively - but an over later he was gone for good after a second review, LBW to Broad.

That left South Africa 44-4. Broad had his tail up. Kaboom! The once prolific JP Duminy came, saw and was conquered in a single ball, clean bowled for a golden duck. Another one to go without playing a shot. These South Africans are quacking up!

Then, the big one. Captain Smith goes down with his ship. Swann got one through, rapped the pads plumb in front and though he waited for a desperate review, he knew... and was gone for 22 off 56 balls.

With South Africa 50-6 and the floodlights on, the stereo-typical last gasp resistance came from Mark Boucher, impressive throughout this series, and Morne Morkel, South Africa's best bowler in both Tests so far.

At 76-6 with 16 overs still to come, the umpires, those lords of darkness, decided it was too dark to continue at 22 minutes past four in the afternoon. Shocking!

But with a day to play and "partly cloudy, little chance of rain" the forecast for Durban tomorrow, surely this can only end one way - and England will go to Cape Town for the New Year Test 1-0 up in the series.

Day four: Tea: England soaring, Swanny spinning, Hoggy singing,

MATTHEW HOGGARD did the trick for England today. With a little help from the Barmy Army.

Yes Hoggy, the Ashes-winning Yorkshire paceman, played his part today as England took a stranglehold on the second Test in muggy Durban.

Did is say muggy? England have mugged the mugs on day four, rattling up a mammoth 575-9 declared to take a 231 lead over the hosts, then taking early wickets to leave the South Africans teetering on 45-5. Incredible scenes, amazing stuff.

Five wickets for 17 runs in nine overs of county team-mates Stuart Broad and Graeme Swann tying 'em up in Notts

Hoggy, in his pink South African Broadcasting Corporation top, chose the perfect moment to join the Barmy Army, massed in the south corner of the East Stand. South Africa were 27-0 after nine overs and apparently cruising.

While Hoggy stood beneath Vic "Jimmy Saville" Flower's waving Union Jack (see picture above) the volume rose and rose. First "Jerusalem", then "There's Only One Matthew Hoggard". Then, as England turned to Graeme Swann, they began a chorus of "Never Trust A Spinner", with Hoggy, the subject of a thousand flashing cameras, in full voice.

And lo, it came to pass on Swann's second ball of the day. Ashwell Prince failed to deal with the turn, getting an inside edge on to his pad which was brilliantly picked up by Ian Bell, back in his favourite position at short leg. Bell, who scored a magnificent 141 to give England the impetus today, went potty. Some catch. Some bloke.

Suddenly South Africa, who had been cruising, were vulnerable. Hoggy had worked the magic.

And it only got better. Hashim Amla, the local hero who refuses to profit from his side's brewery sponsors because of his Muslim roots, went just before tea, bowled by the magnificent Swann for 6. Two failures on his home ground. Unthinkable for Amla, whose century turned the drawn first Test South Africa's way in Centurion.

With Jacques Kallis joining captain Graeme Smith, South Africa were firmly up against the wall. But these were there two go-to guys, the old warhorses. Stubborn, reliable. And then came the ball of the day. Stuart Broad, in from the Umgeni end, got the ball to nip back a veritable mile off the seam and Kallis's off-stump flew out of the ground. The poor bloke didn't even get to play a shot.

What a moment. The Barmy Army lapped it up. South Africa were 40-3 and the calm resolution was disappearing fast.

AB De Villiers was next, he got out twice. First he survived on review after touching Swann to Prior - the replay showed deviation but apparently not conclusively - but an over later he was gone for good after a second review, LBW to Broad.

That left South Africa 44-4. Broad had his tail up. Kaboom! The once prolific JP Duminy came, saw and was conquered in a single ball, clean bowled for a golden duck. Another one to go without playing a shot. These South Africans are quacking up!