Wednesday, 19 May 2010

England to win the World Cup. It's official. The bankers have spoken

England will finally win the World Cup after 44 years of hurt if City boffins at JP Morgan are right.
European champions Spain will lose to Fabio Capello's men in the final, with the Netherlands winning the third place play-off, according to quantitative analysts Matthew Burgess and Marco Dion, who issued their findings on Tuesday ahead of the big kick-off at Soccer City on June 11.
They predict top ranked Brazil will fall short in South Africa because they have a tougher route through to the final than their main rivals.
The quantitative analysts at JP Morgan used information such as FIFA ranking, historical results and its JP Morgan Team Strength Indicator to come up with a mathematical model to predict match results, they explained.
However, they warned "this report should be taken with a pinch of salt" and that it is an exercise to "lightheartedly explain quantitative techniques and demystify the typical framework".
They added: "Having developed a rather successful Quant Model over the years, we intend to introduce it to our readers and also use its methodology to apply it to a fruitful field for statistics: Football and the World Cup."
The analysts usually use the same mathematical equations to help predict stock market winners with millions of dollars hanging on their calculations. In the latest official FIFA rankings, England are in eighth position and Spain are second.

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