THE TRUTH ABOUT THULANI SERERO'S AXE: he arrived early, didn't report for Bafana. Was it miscommunication or arrogance that drove Shakes Mashaba "berserk"?

AXED: Thulani Serero, South Africa's ONLY Champions League star
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THE story of Thulani Serero’s shock omission from South Africa’s final AFCON 2015 squad is not complicated. Nor is it particularly surprising. But, as a mole inside SAFA told me (see grab of DM below) it WAS very badly handled.

In the initial after-shock of hearing that Bafana Bafana’s only current Champions League player had been thrown out, head coach Shakes Mashaba issued a few surprising statements as he attempted to avoid the issue, much as Gordon Igesund did when confronted with the same player’s shenanigans a year ago in Durban (September 2013, that story is HERE http://neal-collins.blogspot.com/2013/09/thulani-serero-putting-barcelona-ahead.html

Mashaba, who lost his Bafana post despite positive results a decade ago for his unyielding attitude to big name foreign stars, told us: “There are other players who proved better than Serero”; that “It would take a year if I had to discuss this decision” and “I’ve dropped 11 players, we should talk about all of them”.

Technically, those were lies. Serero wasn't even in camp to compare him with other players. But understandable given the circumstances. Meanwhile Serero was on the official Ajax website saying he would "love to represent my country at such an important tournament".

Was this another case of Mashaba dropping a young foreign star while picking EIGHT tried and failed stars from AFCON 2013? Or did he have just cause for axing 24-year-old Serero, who appeared to have kissed and made up with both Igesund and SAFA?

Decide for yourself. Here’s what happened:

Thulani Serero, unlike the six members of the provisional squad based in Belgium and England, DID have a Christmas break. The Ere Divisie shuts down for the Festive Season  Ajax Amsterdam don't play again until January 16. So Serero leapt on a plane to his friends and family in Soweto, just outside Johannesburg, and was seen attending the Discovery football tournament before Christmas.

While Dean Furman, Anele Ngcongca and Darren Keet played over Christmas, Serero arrived in Johannesburg on December 22. I believe the flight booked for him by SAFA a week later was either cancelled or ignored. Meanwhile the local PSL players gathered on Boxing Day to prepare with Mashaba and his technical team, attending medical checks before an initial training session on December 28.

While Andile Jali (knee) and Tokelo Rantie (shoulder) turned up for camp early to have their injuries cleared after missing recent games for Oostende in Belgium and high-flying Bournemouth in England, Serero did NOT appear.

According to my source at SAFA, Serero was in Jozi and the surrounds telling players already in camp he was “an automatic choice” and would join the final Bafana 23-man squad for Equatorial Guinea on January 2.

And that’s the problem. While Furman, Keet and Ngcongca were allowed some leeway, Serero’s Christmas Break and early arrival in South Africa got the players talking. And word reached Mashaba who “went berserk”.

This is the true story of Serero’s exclusion. I am told Serero was not aware that he had to report for Bafana with the Boxing Day crew because he had a later flight booked. When I said that on twitter, SAFA Communications Director Dominic Chimhavi, an honourable man who does his job properly, told me I was mis-informed.

I asked him to correct me, get to the truth. I asked: “Did Serero arrive early in South Africa? Did he fail to report for Bafana? Did he know when and where to report?”

Chimhavi, who has subsequently deleted his tweets, confirmed: “That’s a yes to all three questions.”

Shortly afterwards the DMs and SMSs began arriving as Twitter responded to these revelations. Among the messages from angry SAFA officials, Bafana loyalists and agents claiming their players had to be informed of their fate by the media, one good source stood out.

Good source: my DM on Twitter revealing Serero details

I cannot name the bloke, but here’s what he sent me, you can just about read it on the screen grab!

“Same to you mate. I actually enjoyed the interaction. The young boy (Serero) shot himself in the foot, although the matter was not properly handled.

“He arrived in the country on 22 Dec, never went to camp but attended Soweto Games and boasted to those in camp that he will see them on 2 Dec.

“Shakes lost it. He went berserk.”

 I checked on the date and the source corrected it to Friday, 2 January – tomorrow, saying: “Sorry, yes Friday 2 Jan; making himself an automatic choice. These young boys!!!”

So there it is. Serero IS good enough, as he was during qualifying. Nobody should question his talent. His exclusion should have been truthfully dealt with. In fact, he should be banned as "fatigued" May Mahlangu was for failing to attend the last Bafana gathering, if SAFA are to be seen as consistent.

Our “Group of Death” AFCON opponents Algeria, Senegal and Ghana will be completely flummoxed by the arrival and departure of Serero and Ayanda Patosi, foreign-based stars who flew 18000km for NOTHING.

They will also question the absence of Mahlangu and FC Twente’s Kamahelo Mokotjo, cast out after travelling to Johannesburg, Khartoum, Cape Town and then back to Enschede without a minute on the pitch during Mashaba’s opening two Group A qualifiers against Sudan and Nigeria.

They will also wonder whether Rantie, the two-goal hero away to Nigeria in the final qualifier, is fit after his partial shoulder dislocation suffered during a minute-long appearance for Bournemouth in November. Certainly he has not played for the Cherries since as they lead the Championship, en route to the Premier League.

And Jali’s knee, which forced him out of Oostende’s last Belgian league game, will be a concern too.

But as I have said before, unbeaten Mashaba topped his qualifying group. He has a knack of doing the right thing when the critics stand open-mouthed. Apart from the mysterious absence of Kaizer Chiefs defender Tefu Mashamaite, I cannot fault his final squad given Serero’s tale.

The starting XI for Algeria on January 18 is all that matters now. With Reneilwe Letsholonyane suspended for the opening game after his red card against Nigeria, Chippa United’s Thamsanqa Sangweni – brother of Orlando Pirates former Bafana captain Siya – has to be a contender ahead of the likes of Thuso Phala and Oupa Manyisa, hardly burning up the PSL with SuperSport United and Pirates this season.

That leaves Sundowns midfielder Bongani Zungu, who scored in the Nelson Mandela Challenge against Ivory Coast last month, to provide width, something he did with some style in his early days at AmaTuks. Full-back Thabo Matlaba, not a fixture at Pirates right now due to squad rival Patrick Phungwayo, likes to get forward too and Parker tends to drift wide at Chiefs. Team-mate Mandla Masango provides a wide alternative, as does Phala.

Here's my AFCON starting XI to play Algeria in the opening Group C game on January 18: Darren Keet; Anele Ngcongca, Tower Mathoho, Tyson Hlatshwayo, Thabo Matlaba; Thami Sangweni, Dean Furman, Andile Jali, Bongani Zungu; Bernard Parker, Tokelo Rantie.

My source tells me Jali’s knee will be ready for Algeria, if not for the friendly against Zambia at Orlando on Sunday. The same applies for Rantie, who has not played for six weeks. Further friendlies against Mali and Cameroon in Gabon will give Mashaba room to experiment.

Feel free to tweet your Bafana starting line-up to www.twitter.com/nealcol or comment below. And please click on the red button above to vote for me in the SA Blog of the Year awards!

WAS THE AFCON 2015 DRAW FIXED? Hosts Equatorial Guinea couldn't be any luckier. South Africa get the Group of Death. STATISTICALLY IMPROBABLE!

SUPER EAGLES: Nigeria after 2013 triumph in SA
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I SPENT yesterday going through the AFCON 2015 draw, held amid much hoopla in Malaba on December 3. Going on statistics alone, looking at how the balls came out of the pots, I can only conclude the whole thing was FIXED.

Look, I know Equatorial Guinea came to the rescue when Morocco insisted they could not host the tournament due to the Ebola outbreak – though the Moroccans did successfully hold the World Club Cup this month.

So the emergency hosts deserve some credit, despite being suspended for fielding ineligible players during qualifying. Thing is, we all know Equatorial Guinea is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, with a huge oil-driven economy which utterly fails to look after the ordinary folk.

Some statistical back up: Equatorial Guinea is the richest nation per capita in Africa since oil was “discovered” in 1995, but less than half of the population has access to clean drinking water and 20% of their children die before reaching five.

That’s why this tiny nation was able to step in and host the event at such short notice. If Africa's longest-serving leader President Theodoro Obiang, who has ruled for 35 years (that’s longer than Robert Mugabe), wants something, he gets it. Whether his people are concerned about contagious diseases or not.

When he took power in 1979 he had Macias Nguema, the previous president, executed. And with a personal fortune of $600m thanks to contributions from the likes of petro-giant Exxon, it was hardly surprising CAF decided to lift the nation’s suspension and move AFCON to his fiefdom, where Obiang has survived 12 coup attempts.

But the nation capable of fielding a team of players ALL born in foreign nations surely have enough advantages at AFCON when it kicks off on January 15. They should have been ready to hold a fair draw, having not had to play qualifiers due to suspension.

Even the most cursory analysis of how the cookie crumbled suggests collusion. And when you factor in the current FIFA rankings and add them up, the inequality of the “random” draw is staggering. STATISTICALLY IMPROBABLE is the best word I can think of.

My interest here is this: while Equatorial Guinea were enjoying all the luck of the draw, South Africa – after topping Group A in qualifying and putting out the reigning champions Nigeria – were handed all the BAD LUCK in the world, having refused to risk hosting the tournament themselves.

Now that can’t be just luck. The Francophile nations and CAF president Issa Hayatou resent us enough already but look at those pots: in every instance, Equatorial Guinea got the weakest team, South Africa the toughest.

Sure, our hosts occupy a nation two thousand square kilometres smaller than Lesotho, but they don’t deserve a crooked helping hand from Hayatou and his cohorts, so firmly entrenched at CAF. Despite his nation being suspended and in footballing chaos at times, the 68-year-old Cameroonian has been in charge of African football since 1988, before Nelson Mandela was released. 26 years is a helluva long time in football, just ask Sepp Blatter.

Now look at those seeding “pots”. As hosts, Equatorial Guinea were put in Pot 1 for the top-seeded teams. But that’s misleading. Algeria (or Little France as they are now known, with most stars born and coached in France) are the top side in Africa right now, but found themselves in Pot 2. Ghana were the ones to avoid in Pot 1.

And yes, South Africa got Ghana, rather than the less intimidating 2012 champions Zambia or Burkina Faso. For some inexplicable reason, Burkina Faso found themselves in the same group as the hosts, despite being in the same pot.

In Pot 2, South Africa’s Group C were lumbered with the team everyone was hoping to avoid, Algeria while Group A got NONE of those dangerous nations like Ivory Coast, Mali or Tunisia.

Instead, Equatorial Guinea got Gabon from South Africa’s Pot 3 while unbeaten Bafana Bafana were landed with the most dangerous nation in Pot 4, Senegal.

Confused? We all were. Suffice to say Equatorial Guinea’s STRONGEST opponents are Congo, ranked 62 in the world by FIFA right now. South Africa’s WEAKEST opponents are Senegal, ranked 41 in the world and responsible for the qualifying failure of seven-time winners Egypt in qualifying.

Statistically improbable. That’s the phrase we’ll have to use. It would have been IMPOSSIBLE for Equatorial Guinea to have had an easier group. South Africa’s GROUP OF DEATH could not have been any harder.

Now I remember during the World Cup in 2010 when Argentina’s legendary Diego Maradona alleged that “warmed balls” were used in some draws to ensure the big bosses got the groups and fixtures they wanted. I always wondered if it was possible to conjure up a fixed draw in the glare of the television cameras. I can think of no other explanation for the utter improbability of this particular set of groupings.

I warned before the draw that Bafana Bafana, disliked both on and off the field in the north of the continent, would get the thin end of the wedge. Below you can see just how thin that wedge is.

By adding the four FIFA rankings of each of the nations in each group, it’s possible to see just how strong they are. The higher the score, the easier the group. The totals are self-evident.  

Equatorial Guinea’s Group A totals 325. That’s TWICE as much as the Group of Death. And way more than Group B or Group D. See for yourself:

GROUP A
Equatorial Guinea 125
Burkina Faso 71
Gabon 67
Congo 62

TOTAL: 325

GROUP B
Zambia 78
Tunisia 31
Cape Verde 33
DR Congo 60

TOTAL: 202

GROUP C
Ghana 35
Algeria 15
South Africa 57
Senegal 41

TOTAL: 148

GROUP D
Ivory Coast 25
Mali 58
Cameroon 40
Guinea 55

TOTAL: 178

I’ve seen many draws in my life-time. And not just in football. Often the home team or the favoured association find themselves in a good position. But this draw is a step too far for me. Clearly, something is amiss.

Still, having been quoted R145,000 to join Bafana for all their games in Equatorial Guinea in January, it’s unlikely I’ll be remonstrating personally with Presidents Obiang or Hayatou. Just as well I guess.

Good luck Shakes Mashaba. As I said in my last entry, you may need it.

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We come to praise Shakes, not to bury him: but questions need to be asked about that Bafana Bafana squad!

Unbeaten: Bafana Bafana boss Shakes Mashaba

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Let's get one thing straight from the outset. As I say again and again on twitter, SHAKES KNOWS BEST. Unbeaten in six Group A AFCON qualifiers and the Nelson Mandela Challenge, Ephaim Mashaba's record since taking over Bafana Bafana reads SEVEN games, THREE wins and FOUR draws, NO DEFEATS.


Again and again, Mashaba has confounded the critics. Right from that first training session at Mark's Park when Itumeleng Khune injured his heel, the "cheap but sensible option" has made a series of decisions which boggle the mind - but produce mind-boggling results.


Making the late Senzo Meyiwa his goalkeeper ahead of Darren Keet, and then naming him as captain, riled a lot of people in the Kaizer Chiefs camp. There was never any doubt the Belgian-based goalkeeper was the better choice but history will record - eternally since Meyiwa's still-unsolved murder - the Orlando Pirates No 1 kept a clean sheet in all four qualifying matches.


We talked too about his elevation of youngsters to the senior squad when they were not making the first team in the PSL. Yet Rivaldo Coetzee, hardly faultless in Ajax Cape Town's recent subsidence, was strong next to Tower Mathoho when he broke Aaron Mokoena's record as our youngest EVER international.


In midfield, Kamehelo Mokotjo, highly rated at FC Twente in the Dutch Ere Divisie, was flown out for those opening games against Sudan and Egypt... but never played. He went home frustrated with Mashaba (rather rudely) complaining he "looked heavy". He hasn't been seen in South Africa since.


Mashaba survived the "grabbing of the privates" incident against elderly Congo boss Claude Leroy and the banning of "fatigued" May Mahlangu but when Tokelo Rantie finally came good with two superb goals in Nigeria to put the AFCON champions OUT of the competition, Mashaba's star blazed beyond all others in our footballing firmament.


So when he announced the 34-man provisional squad for Equatorial Guinea, you could expect fireworks from the critics. But always, given the struggles of previous Bafana bosses Pitso Mosimane and Gordon Igesund, an underlying respect for Shakes prevails. His record as national team boss at all levels is hard to beat - he even got his beloved U20 AmaJitas past Cameroon to their continental championship while simultaneously taking over from Igesund at Bafana.


Incredible stuff. But that doesn't put him above critique. When he announced his 34-man squad, Shakes insisted there was still a chance for others to impress and make their way in to contention. But that isn't the point of a provisional squad. He must select 23 from those 34 in January, or the whole idea and the friendly against Zambia is pointless.

THE CHOSEN MEN: SAFA's official 34-man squad for AFCON 2015

My problems with the squad are no secret. I've been blocked by the Bafana Bafana twitter account and accused of treason by ardent South Africans, but the right to ask questions remains.

Here are my FIVE questions for Mr Mashaba:

1 How can you NOT select Itumeleng Khune, injured in early September on Bafana duty, but stick with Platinum Stars stopper Siyabonga Mpontshane, who hasn't played for his club since the Telkom KO final? Khune is fit again and on the bench for the last three Chiefs games, surely he should go in to camp on Boxing Day and prove he's back to his best in training? Match fitness cannot be applied to goalkeepers the way it is with outfield players.


2 Tefu Mashamaite, ironically the man who has taken over the captain's armband at unbeaten, record-breaking Kaizer Chiefs, is perhaps the most glaring omission. He plays next to Mathoho every week and is head and shoulders better than Coetzee and other rivals like Kwandakwentsizwe Mngonyama of Maritzburg United, who is currently playing in midfield. I won't even mention Siyanda Xulu at Rostov or Buhle Mkhwanazi at Wits.


3 Perhaps the best full-back in the PSL right now is another Kaizer Chiefs player, Tsepo Masilela. He has consistently out-performed his rivals but there is no room for him while Mzikayisa Mashaba and Nsikelelo Nyauza are not regulars at Mamelodi Sundowns and Orlando Pirates. Players who can't make their club first team being picked for Bafana is the prevailing theme.


4 As I've said above, Mokotjo and the now-banned May Mahlangu fail to find forgiveness from Shakes despite plying their midfield trade at a far higher level than the PSL in Europe. Obviously the all-foreign-based midfield will line up Ayanda Patosi, Dean Furman, Andile Jali and Thulani Serero but around them we have Vuyisele Wana of flightless Moroka Swallows and Asivele Mbekile from Sundowns. Two players who hardly leap to mind when discussing South Africa's top midfielders. Two players who, again, are not club regulars. What about George Maluleka and George Lebese? Or am I being biased towards the AmaKhosi, who lead the PSL by a mile?


5 Up front, Tokelo Rantie is currently out of action after sustaining a "partial dislocation" of his shoulder a minute after coming on for Bournemouth following his heroics for Bafana in Nigeria. It's unlikely the promotion-chasing Cherries will release him for AFCON let alone for the pre-camp on Boxing Day. Why not have a look at Lehlohonolo Majoro and Kermit Erasmus, around whom Orlando Pirates are finally beginning to build a two-pronged assault weapon? Bernard Parker's first inclusion in a squad under Shakes is a welcome addition, given his recent "glut" of three goals, particularly the brace against Bidvest Wits.


These five criticisms are not an assault on Shakes Mashaba's intellect. Neither is the bald statement that agent Tim Sukazi has more influence than he should have - the suggestion on the social networks is that he has NINE players in the squad, including most of the controversial ones. Obviously, having warred with Igesund over agent influence, I'm not going to get involved in all that again.


HOW BAFANA WILL LINE UP IN EQUATORIAL GUINEA


The truth is, the potential starting eleven is nearly as strong as it was in qualifying, where South Africa left the Super Eagles grounded - though I still find Mashamaite's ommission such a poor decision it seems almost sinister. Keet in goal, plenty of form full-backs, possibly Patrick Phungwayo and Anele Ngconca;  Thulani Hlatshwayo and Mathoho at centre-back. They'll do.

We have that "Eurocentric" midfield of Furman (whose stuttering Doncaster Rovers career will be finished by AFCON, methinks) and Jali with Patosi and Serero (whose absence at Ajax Amsterdam was heavily lamented by Frank de Boer today). Parker and David Zulu or Bongani Ndulula will probably start up front with last season's PSL player of the year Sbu Vilakazi an impact substitute.


To be frank, in a "group of death" featuring Algeria, Ghana and Senegal, a Rantie miracle cure would be very welcome. I dislocated my shoulder 34 times in my playing career, it's an unlikely dream. He needs surgery and intensive rehab, just ask Bryan Robson.


Sadly, with the official AFCON travel agents asking R145,000 to tour with Bafana, I won't be going to Equatorial Guinea when the Ebola-threatened tournament kicks off on January 17. But then neither will five or six of our best players, Khune, Mashmaite, Erasmus, Majoro or Masilela.


Having had my gripe over selection, having pleaded for the right to question (but not insult) an unbeaten, miracle-working national coach, we end thus: BEST OF LUCK BAFANA BAFANA. I suspect we'll need it.

GOING TO POT: Why South Africa have no need to fear the AFCON draw

ON TOP OF THE PILE: Furmidable captain Dean Furman leads the Bafana celebrations
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LET'S GET ONE THING STRAIGHT. When the AFCON 2015 draw takes place in Malabo tomorrow at 8pm we should be HAPPY. Proud to see our beloved Bafana Bafana in the draw.

As I have said repeatedly, South Africa have over-achieved in the four short months since Ephraim "Cheap but Sensible" Mashaba took charge at the end of July.

We were supposed to be building for a distant World Cup. Shakes was appointed with one eye on SAFA's "VISION 2022" philosophy.

The poor bloke was hamstrung from the start, touring West Africa with his Under 20 AmaJitas when he got the job. He won the Coach of the Year award for his success with the youngsters just last week. Then he stepped in to those huge national coach shoes again... and faced the multiple onslaughts of Itumeleng Khune's injury, Ebola, Senzo's murder and various players suffering fatigue and missed flights.

But tomorrow night at 8pm, Bafana Bafana will be in the draw. Qualified without hosting. In Pot 3. And mighty Nigeria, the Super Eagles, the reigning champions, are POTLESS. Steve Keshi took it on the chin from Shakes. And is still groggy.


I spoke to our "Furmidable" captain Dean Furman yesterday. I'm planning to link up with his dad Ronnie, a dentist in London, to brave President Theodorin Obiang's bizarre nation of haves and have-nots when the tournament begins on January 18 through to the final (hopefully for Shakes) on February 8.


Dean himself knows a month in Africa will do him and the other foreign-based players little good. He came on as a sub for Doncaster Rovers, struggling in England's third flight, over the weekend. And he admits: "It does present a problem for the European players but I would do anything for my country. I love playing for Bafana Bafana. When I left Cape Town aged five, I never dreamed I would lead my country.

"I would not swap that experience for ANYTHING. I'm hoping dad will be there to watch. I've got family in Johannesburg and Cape Town who will be rooting for me too."

But so much now appears to depend on tomorrow night's draw in a nation not known for fair play - they were suspended before stepping in as emergency hosts after Morocco's Ebola-phobic withdrawal and have been known to field oil-stained national teams devoid of a single local-born player.

16 teams qualified for AFCON. Seven-time winners Egypt and champions Nigeria are just two of the big absentees, along with Ethiopia, who put Gordon Igesund's Bafana out of the World Cup in our last botched qualification attempt.


Bizarrely, with South Africa seeded in Pot 3 due to our previous failings, it's Pot 2 which contains the really tough teams. Hosts Equatorial Guinea automatically drop in to Pot 1 with Ghana, 2011 champions Zambia and Burkina Faso.

But in the second pot, THREE favourites stand out: Ivory Coast (not the team South Africa beat 2-0 in the Nelson Mandela Challenge on Sunday, the one with Yaya Toure, Wilfried Bony etc etc), Africa's top current outfit Algeria (also known as France Mark Two) and Tunisia (number two in Africa).

Using purely numerical values here are the BEST and WORST case scenarios:


GROUP OF DREAMS
Equatorial Guinea (37), Mali (10), South Africa (11) and Congo (13)

GROUP OF DEATH
Ghana (5), Algeria (1), South Africa (11) and Senegal (4)

GOING TO POT:Pot 1
Equatorial Guinea (37)

Ghana (5)
Zambia (15)
Burkina Faso (18)

Pot 2
Ivory Coast (3)
Mali (10)
Tunisia (2)
Algeria (1)

Pot 3
Cape Verde (7)
South Africa (11)
Gabon (17)
DR Congo (12)

Pot 4
Cameroon (8)
Senegal (4)
Guinea (6)
Congo (13)

Still, no matter how it turns out, Mr Mashaba has assured us: "We are not just going there to make up the numbers. If anybody under-estimates South Africa, they will be made to pay for it."

And ultimately, it doesn't matter how the groups shape up. After qualifying top of Group A, South Africa may just be the team to avoid tomorrow night.

BAFANA SEND CHAMPIONS NIGERIA CRASHING OUT: Tokelo Rantie double leaves Super Eagles grounded. Now for Equatorial Guinea

TAKE THAT: Dean Furman joins Tokelo Rantie's celebration

CHAPTER ONE of the Shakes Mashaba miracle is complete. In six remarkable games across four short months, the “cheap but sensible” option has led South Africa to AFCON 2015 qualification amid a whirlwind of renewed optimism. Carlos Queiroz, we never needed your R22m-a-year assistance.

Last night in Uyo, Bafana Bafana were two injury-time minutes from their first ever competitive win over Nigeria, their first triumph over the so-called Super Eagles since 2004 in 11 attempts. But that serves only to mask the fact that, beyond all expectation, they’d gone to the brand new Akwa Ibom stadium knowing  they would finish as Group A winners NO MATTER WHAT.

Tokelo Rantie, my Man of the Match against Sudan on Saturday and again last night, had a chance to make it 3-2 and complete his hat-trick in the dying moments, with Vincent Enyeama’s save reducing Mashaba to head-stroking frustration (videos of both Rantie goals, from Soccer Laduma's Joe Crann, feature BELOW).

Though Mzanzi will emerge this morning knowing victory was torn from our grasp, we should also wake up to the fact that Steve Keshi’s African champions are OUT, given the final shove by Bafana as Congo picked up the 1-0 victory they needed in Sudan.

For much of the first half, Nigeria ran rampant, capitalising on Mashaba’s decision to give Reneilwe Letsholonwane a run in midfield ahead of the ever-improving Andile Jali. Yeye left captain Dean Furman over-run in midfield as Doncaster Rovers’ finest struggled to contain Chelsea’s John Obi Mikel.

38 minutes: Tokelo Rantie's superb opening goal from @yeswecrann

That turbulent period saw Tefu Mashamaite, standing in for young Rivaldo Coetzee at centre-back, struggle next to his table-topping Kaizer Chiefs centre-back partner Tower Mathoho. Only a series of superb saves from Darren Keet denied the lethal Ahmed Musa as Bafana struggled to stay afloat.

Up front, Kermit Erasmus – a late replacement for flu stricken Bongani Ndulula – was substituted before half-time and his replacement Moeketsi Sekola simply disappeared along with midfielders Mandla Masango and Oupa Manyisa. Things didn’t look good. The social networks were creaking with cruel critique.

But then, either side of half-time, Bournemouth’s substitute striker Rantie did his stuff. Twice he blasted a huge hole in the Nigerian defence. Twice he beat the great Enyeama. Twice he silenced the home support.

But once Yeye had been red carded by Mauritian referee Rajindraparsad Seechurn, Nigeria were always going to come back. Seconds after I tweeted about the dangers of a home goal, the Super Eagles had equalised and, in the desperate five minutes of “Fergie time”, along came the equaliser – both scored by supersub Sone Aluko.

I predicted a draw when I previewed the game on ANN7 yesterday (see previous entry) and a draw it was. By a whisker.

Afterwards Mashaba, in a splendid striped shirt, was magnanimous: “We soaked up the pressure in the first twenty minutes, that was the plan. Then we got the two goals. But we lost our shape at the end, we stopped man-marking.

“But football is a matter of luck. We should have beaten Nigeria in Cape Town too. Now I have to organise three or four friendlies before the tournament in January.

53 minutes: Rantie's second goal and it could have been 3

“We are not going to Equatorial Guinea to make up the numbers. We are going to compete. If anybody takes BafanaBafana for granted, they will do so at their peril.”

He’s right of course. After all, Shakes knows best. A quick look at the seven qualifying groups shows only South Africa, Tunisia, Senegal and Gabon finished unbeaten. Even mighty Algeria, currently Africa’s top side, slipped at the final hurdle.

The qualifiers with unsuspended hosts Equatorial Guinea in January? South Africa, Congo, Algeria, Mali, Gabon, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Guinea, Cape Verde, Zambia, Senegal and Tunisia finshed in the top two. DR Congo qualify as best third-place finishers after once-mighty Egypt stumbled in Tunisia.

Captain Furmidable, whose dentist dad Ronnie from north London has promised to travel to Equatorial Guinea with me in January,  said: “It shows how far we’ve come when we’re disappointed with a draw against Nigeria away. We’ve got a good group, we play as a team. There are things we have to work on, but everybody is looking forward to January. We are looking good.

“Shakes Mashaba has installed a pride in the team and you saw that on the pitch today, we fight for the shirt, we want to win every ball, score every goal. We have a very focused group and that’s down to the coach.”

Fine uplifting words in a nation where even the pale people are starting to sit up and take notice, as they did in the 1990s when Clive Barker – like Mashaba, a motivator rather than a master tactician – had Bafana playing a key role in Nelson Mandela’s Rainbow Nation.

The draw for AFCON 2015 takes place on December 3. Then friendlies. January looms. Optimism grows. But for now, after a qualifying campaign beset by Ebola, bans and murder, a final thought: Thanks Senzo Meyiwa. You were the foundation. You were never beaten.

The final word on Nigeria v South Africa: We've qualified. The Super Eagles haven't. A draw would be a great result

PETE'S SAKE: With Peter van Onselen on ANN7 today

TONIGHT will not be for the faint-hearted, When South Africa kick-off against Nigeria at the Akwa Ibom "Nest of Champions" stadium in Uyo, Nigeria, there is history. And two possible futures.

If Shakes Mashaba's unbeaten Bafana Bafana can produce a result - either a draw or a win - the Super Eagles are in serious trouble. They go in to the game knowing they have to better Congo's result against Sudan or they run the risk of failing to qualify for AFCON 2015.

This morning on ANN7, the South African 24-hour news channel on DSTV 405, I pointed out how pleased we would have been, barely four months ago, to reach this final showdown with South Africa already secure at the top of Group A. It's not just a marvel, it's a near-miracle.

Mashaba, as I have said before, has had to withstand injury to his captain Itumeleng Khune before he even got started, the Ebola outbreak, troubled times with overseas-based stars Kamahelo Mokotjo and May Mahlangu AND THE MURDER OF HIS UNBEATEN CAPTAIN SENZO MEYIWA have all struck since.

No coach should have to face such things. But Shakes has. And he goes in to tonight's showdown with a record of FIVE games, THREE wins and TWO draws. But still the blows keep coming. This afternoon we were told big AmaZulu striker Bongani Ndulula is OUT with flu and that Orlando Pirates front-runner Kermit Erasmus will replace him in the starting line-up.

I told Peter van Onselen this morning on ANN7's Vuka: "Mashaba is tactically good, his selections are often controversial, but his major strength is motivation, he's like Sir Alex Ferguson" and I cited as evidence the way Shakes unleashed a verbal outburst which got Bournemouth's Tokelo Rantie fired up to score against Sudan last Saturday.

Shakes, seven years younger than the now-retired Scotsman, will need all his fiery team-talks and cuss-packed pitch-side rants to get Bafana going tonight. Nigeria HAVE TO WIN. They have over 200 players in Europe, we have barely 20. The Super Eagles traditionally get one over on South Africa, most recently at the CHAN tournament, where a 3-1 triumph left Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula frothing at the mouth.


In ten attempts, South Africa have beaten Nigeria just once - in 2004 - losing SEVEN TIMES.

There has never been a better time to overcome that hoodoo. The home leg of this qualifying tournament saw a 0-0 draw in Cape Town. Then, coach Steve Keshi was on the way out, Africa's top goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama was mysteriously unavailable and FIFA were threatening to ban the Nigerian Football Federation for governmental interference.

Tonight Enyeama plays, the NFF are back on track, and the new stadium will be humming with the anti-South African feeling Mashaba has talked about in the past. EVERYONE wants to beat us, the length of Africa.

But captain Dean "Furmidable" Furman knows all that. He says:"We are out to remain unbeaten. We know Nigeria will be tough, but this is not just about football, it's about the fans, the nation."

A win tonight would be a dream. A draw is the most optimistic prediction I'm prepared to offer. A defeat is likely when one side is desperate to qualify, the other is already through. Of course, Nigeria could yet qualify as the best third-placed finisher for Equatorial Guinea in January.

The bottom line is, South Africa would do well to stop Nigeria qualifying. Then Algeria would be the main threat. Their French-based revival will be hard to stop. But with Africa's big guns all on the brink tonight, South Africa could be ready to assume their rightful position near the pinnacle of the continent's footballing ranking.

And a point tonight will be just the first step on the way. What ever happens, Shakes Mashaba, the cheap but sensible option after Gordon Igesund, YOU KNOW BEST.


My ANN7 interview is HERE;




For better quality, try THIS:

Equatorial Guinea, gender, nationality and human rights: Why Banyana's final demise deserves closer scrutiny

Double trouble: Genoveva Anonma, who scored twice against Banyana

BANYANA BANYANA’S epic attempt to lift the CAF Women’s crown may have come to an abrupt halt when they lost to hosts Equatorial Guinea 4-0 yesterday – but look under the veneer of a one-sided final and you'll find there are a couple of very good reasons for their failure to lift the continental crown.

The “women” who lifted the female African Cup of Nations in Malabo might be worth closer scrutiny following repeated questions over their gender and nationality.

My problem with Equatorial Guinea does not start with their women’s team. During the African Cup of Nations – generally the natural domain of male footballers – in January, I wrote this http://www.neal-collins.blogspot.com/2012/01/rampant-corruption-11-foreigners-and-1m.html explaining how the oil-rich nation works.

Although the second-smallest African UN member’s GDP is $35,000 per person, two-thirds of the population lives on less than $1 a day with a tiny elite living the high life.

In a notoriously undemocratic country scandalously low on human rights and poverty indexes, the Equatorial Guinea FA have been known to move the goalposts before – passports are granted to overseas players, birth certificates are altered and huge bonuses are paid to their footballers while the large majority of the nation starves.

At one point during AFCON2012, the team overseen by Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangu – the Equatoguinean president’s son - fielded NOT ONE player born in Africa’s “richest” nation as they turned to heroes born in Brazil, Liberia, Spain and Cameroon in a tournament hostly jointly with Gabon.

But when it comes to the women’s game – where NINE of the team were foreign-born - something really dodgy lurks beneath the surface. The tiny nation’s inexplicable rise up the women’s rankings may just have been achieved using MEN.

According to http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/06/25/154809.html in 2010, during the last women’s AFCON in South Africa, the Equatorians were forced to drop “sisters” Salimata and Bilguisa Simpore from the team.

Ghana captain Florence Okoe said after her team’s defeat against the former Spanish colony: “It is not as if we are throwing sour grapes, just because we have lost. Rather, this is the fact and it is up to the organizers to do something about this. It is not good for African women’s football.”

And her teammate Diana Ankomah insisted: “You only need to have physical contact with them to know this, and we can tell from what happened most times during the match.”

The side ranked 62 in the FIFA women’s rankings – currently 5^th in Africa behind powerhouse Nigeria – simply dropped the rugged “sisters” and carried on. No gender tests were carried out despite promises from CAF after official complaints were made.

FIFA’s response? With Equatorial Guinea pumping millions in to hosting a raft of international tournaments, Sepp Blatter’s people said: "No mandatory or routine gender testing verification examinations will take place at Fifa competitions.

"It lies with each participating member association to prior to the nomination of its national team ensure the correct gender of all players by actively investigating any perceived deviation in secondary sex characteristics and keeping complete documentation of the findings."

In other words: FIFA did NOTHING.

Equatorial Guinea's football federation, Feguifoot, claimed they were being subjected to a "campaign of defamation", adding: "Accusations about the supposed presence of men are totally unfounded. These allegations are being made by groups of people that watch with pessimism the progress made by Equatorial Guinean soccer."

Genoveva Anonma, who scored twice in yesterday’s final against Banyana and plays professionally for the German club USV Jena, told the BBC that she had already been gender tested after complaints from opponents, which she found "offensive".

South Africa’s team manager in 2010, Fran Hilton-Smith, was quoted at the time saying: "I think they are probably intersex and they think they are girls. That's the aspect that needs to be investigated.

"Fifa has to come up with some specific medical gender tests to establish whether these players are intersex. If they have 100% testosterone that definitely gives them an advantage. They shouldn't be banned but they should be helped."

Equatorial Guinea were also accused of fielding male players in 2008 when they last won the African women's championship. They are still the only country other than far larger near-neighbours Nigeria to win the title.

During this year’s AFCON they won all five games and scored 18 goals while conceding none.

The country’s president Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo overthrew previous dictator Francisco Macías Nguema on 3 August, 1979 in a bloody coup d'état. Since then some 12 unsuccessful coup attempts have occurred.

Equatorial Guinea has one of the worst human rights records in the world, consistently ranking among the "worst of the worst" in Freedom House's annual survey of political and civil rights and Reporters Without 

The press monitoring agency Borders ranks President Obiang among its "predators" of press freedom with the President banning "all political dissent" and appointing his son to the previously unknown role of "second vice president" and granting him diplomatic immunity from legal action being taken against him in France.

The Trafficking in Persons Report 2012 states "Equatorial Guinea is a source and destination for women and children subjected to forced labor and sex trafficking." The report rates Equatorial Guinea as a "Tier 3" country, the worst ranking.

President Obiang has been in power for 33 years – the longest-serving leader in Africa. Last year he announced plans for a new capital in the country, to be called Djibloho while the majority of his people lack access to electricity or running water.

And in the light of all that, who can blame Banyana for their final denouement or President Jacob Zuma for using state funds to improve Nkandla?

Rampant corruption, 11 foreigners and $1m bonuses: Why nobody should support Equatorial Guinea on Saturday