ELEPHANTASTIC: FINAL VERDICT ON AFCON 2015: it was everything we expected, but not quite what we hoped for

The Elephant in the Room: Ivory Coast celebrate AFCON2015

AFCON 2015. The tournament that should never have taken place. The tournament that defied expectations. The tournament that defied Ebola. The tournament that defied logic, right down to that extraordinary penalty shoot-out after a drab final.

It’s only football. We know that. The Ivory Coast Elephants were always the heavyweights. But the ups and downs in Equatorial Guinea over the past three weeks have been even more knuckle whitening than normal, surely?

The lows? We’d have to start with South Africa’s own fortunes in Mongomo, ancestral home of the despot President Theodorin Obiang, in charge since 1979 and grinding his people in to the ground. Bafana Bafana couldn’t even conjure a win in Group A as they ground us into the ground.

They went out of the tournament with one point and a desperate record equalled in its awfulness only by Burkina Faso. Yet they led in all three games. Heart-breaking.

Still, as I said when the draw for this African Cup of Nations was made, the limited talents of Shakes Mashaba were never going to get us out of Group C once the dodgy hosts had got their hands on Issa Hayatou’s warmed balls. Pity Ephraim forgot to check who was actually in the Group of Death before he started laughing it off and – laughably – promising a repeat of our great 1996 triumph.

On Saturday, under thermo-nuclear levels of secrecy, Mashaba reported to the SAFA technical committee, dominated (unusually) by Natascha Tshichlas, Ria Ledwaba and Fran Hilton-Smith, Danny Jordaan’s three princesses.

I’m told Shakes was rapped over the knuckles for his treatment of young foreign stars Thulani Serero and Kamahelo Mokotjo and told the search for a modern, highly qualified Technical Director remained a priority. I bet he didn’t like that. Still, he wore a lot of nice shirts during the tournament, between goalkeeper changes.

While South Africans came back down to earth after that fabulous unbeaten qualifying success which left champions Nigeria in disarray, we have had to watch the knock-out stages dominated by Equatorial Guinea cheating, Africa’s No 1 Algeria under-performing and Tunisia sulking.

Weapons of destruction: missiles thrown by fans on Thursday

And then came that awful semi-final. I said on twitter Ghana looked reluctant to add a third goal against the hosts in last Thursday’s second semi-final and BOOM, when they went 3-0 up, we were treated to awful scenes from the home crowd in a nation where so many live beneath the bread line yet still throw plates when they’re angry.

Actually, we missed most of the nastiness which left 14 Ghanaian fans in hospital, the Dictatorial Guinea television producers wouldn’t allow us to see the crowd trouble, the missile throwing, the real nastiness.

And when the final came around on Sunday night, the host nation were denied live coverage of their own tournament at the death. Unbelievable. While commentators and analysts praised long-serving Presidents Obiang and Issa Hayatou, African football slipped to a new nadir with trouble exploding before Zamelek’s game in Egypt just as the final kicked off.

It's a mess. Tunisia have yet to apologise for their accusations of bias after Dictatorial Guinea’s dodgy late penalty in the quarter-final and Morocco, the hosts who pulled out over Ebola fears (but still hosted FIFA’s Club World Cup) are out for the next two AFCONS.

The host nation were given a mere slap on the wrist for their half-hour of mayhem. They were fined $100,000 while Tunisia and Morocco face bills of millions; and Equatoria Guinea played their 3^rd place play off WITH fans, losing to the DRC in an eminently missable consolation clash.

Sadly, much of the “dream final” between Ghana and Cote D’Ivoire was eminently missable too. The highlights? Ghana’s Christian Atsu, the Chelsea striker on loan with a cushion at Everton, hit the post, Ivory Coast coach Herve Renard wore a nice pink tabard and a clearly unfit Asamoah Gyan managed to stamp on an Elephant without punishment.

It was always going to go to penalties, and the drab 120 minutes was soon forgotten as Ghana took a 2-0 lead after four penalties, blew it… and the goalkeepers decided it with 35-year-old Boubacar 'Copa' Barry scoring where his counterpart Razak Braimah failed.

After 22 penalties Barry, a last-minute replacement, was the bemused hero. Asamoah Gyan, the Ghana captain who came off with a minute to play and missed the penalty shoot-out, may well turn out to be the scapegoat, as he was at the World Cup in 2010.

In essence, it was a repeat of the 1992 final, with the Ivory Coast ironically turning the Orange Africa Cup of Nations in to a feast of orange. Yaya Toure lifted the trophy while Andre Ayew wept inconsolably, remembering his father Abedi Pele’s upset when he missed out on the same final 23 years ago.

For Ghana coach Avram Grant, in his lucky blue polo shirt, barely a flicker of emotion. He lost the Champions League final with Chelsea when John Terry fluffed his penalty against Manchester United in Moscow. He’s used to heartbreak.

AFCON WINNER: goalkeeper Barry is carried aloft

Herve Renard, the first man to win AFCON with two different nations, said: “It’s coming from God, but you have to be strong. I believe in history and I’m a lucky coach.

“We are strong because everybody worked very hard. Didier Drogba didn’t win this cup with Ivory Coast, it’s a shame he’s not there. It’s a shame he’s not here. I’d like to give him part of this, dedicate it to him.

“You don’t achieve something in one month, the team spirit made the difference. I discovered (Ghana’s) Andre Ayew at a young age, I felt sorry for him but he’ll be back.”

Ghana coach Avram Grant groaned: “It’s painful to lose and be the better side on the pitch. When you win you can say anything, this is football. Penalties are painful. It’s not the first time this has happened to me.

“We have a good team for the present. In a short time we did a lot of good things. We are crying now, they gave good heart, good football. Good for the future.”

Former Arsenal veteran Kolo Toure, now with Liverpool, said: “Penalties are all about God to me. We waited a long time for this. My generation waited for 23 years. I’d like to dedicate this win to my brother who died during the World Cup.”

In summary, AFCON 2015 was exactly what we expected, though not quite what we might have hoped for. From the moment Morocco withdrew, we knew Equatorial Guinea would be hard-pressed to run the show without a hitch.

A pitch invasion and a drab final won’t spoil the memories for Ivorians. But for Ghanaians and South Africans, we move on. And hopefully for uapologetic Tunisia and 7 times winners Egypt – where 14 died in violence before a Zamalek game last night – there will be a brighter future too.

But to be honest what would really cheer me up: a free and fair election in Dictatorial Guinea. But I guess that's too much to ask.

Unbeaten coach of the year Shakes Mashaba continues to confound with Bafana Bafana Mark II

Unbeaten: Bafana boss Shakes Mashaba

ON the face of it, a man who took over in late July has to be pretty fortunate to win South Africa’s coach of the year award. But not this time.

Ephraim Shakes Mashaba is that man. On Sunday night in Sandton, he was rightly awarded the ultimate coaching accolade ahead of the minority sports and, with our Proteas and Springboks currently on the beaten track, the predictable bleating from those “jobs for life” journalists echoed across the social networks.

Danny Jordaan, the SAFA president who has ushered in an era where, for once, diski/soccer/football is emerging as the pride of the nation, rightly sums up: “This has been an incredible year, we hope awards for Shakes and Portia Modise will encourage the entire football family to do even better going forward.”

Sadly, the promised arrival of a Bafana technical director and the new Nike kit has not materialised. Match-fixing, shrouded attendance figures and Senzo Meyiwa’s unsolved killing still weight heavily on our game. And as David Isaacson points out, Mashaba won coach of the year for our AmaJita Under 20s qualifying success, his Bafana Bafana revival wasn't taken in to account.

But forget all that. On the field, Mashaba continues to confound.

Fielding an entirely new team for the Nelson Mandela Challenge at Mbombela on Sunday, his Bafana Bafana Mark II simply went out and played just like the first choice outfit did in AFCON qualifying.

That’s no small feat. South Africa saw off mighty Nigeria to win Group A during a turbulent six-match saga which saw Senzo Meyiwa murdered, an Ebola outbreak, May Mahlangu banned, suspended Equatorial Guinea handed the hosting rights and key players ruled out.

Qualification ahead of the African champion Super Eagles was a considerable upset. But what Shakes came up with on Sunday takes us one step further. The arch-motivator took a whole new squad and despite cancelled training sessions and late withdrawals, created a new “bunch of winners”, to paraphrase Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula.

Chippa United’s Thami Sangweni, brother of Orlando Pirates towering defender Siya, took the captain’s armband. Chippa United’s five-goal David Zulu, much talked about as a future Kaizer Chiefs striker, took his place up front next to Polokwane City’s Puleng Tlolane, the PSL’s top scorer with seven goals.

Between them, those twelve goals dwarf the tally of Mzanzi’s big guns. Kermit Erasmus and Lehlohonolo Majoro have six between them. Bernard Parker and Kingston Nkhatha at unbeaten league leaders Kaizer Chiefs have erm... even less.

But it was the much-talked-about  Bongani Zungu from Mamelodi Sundowns who really impressed, scoring the first goal after Vuyisile Wana’s first-minute effort had been ruled out for off-side and generally getting ball to the right areas. Zulu added the richly-deserved second after half-time and it was job done for Shakes, who has now played seven, won four and drawn three.

With Mashaba in charge, the selection process appears to be secondary. The man himself confesses he is no tactical genius, “I put out 11 players and tell them to play for the nation” and boy, do they play.

This friendly, against an admittedly under-strength Ivory Coast (the Toure brothers and their big European stars had other things on their mind over the weekend), proves the point with some gusto.

Pitso Mosimane and Gordon Igesund are top South African coaches with five PSL titles between them. Last season Mosimane took Sundowns to the championship and this season Igesund has revived SuperSport United and on Saturday, he led them to that Telkom KO triumph.

But in truth, they failed to motivate the disparate band of men chosen to represent their nation. Never really got them to play for the shirt, much like the foreign millionaires before them.

I’m not sure how Shakes does it. I’m told his team-talks are the stuff of legend, invoking all kinds of semi-mythical imagery to fire up his charges.

After his seventh game without defeat, Mashaba glowed: "We needed this win to keep up the winning momentum for the nation.

"This was almost a new team, a good chance to give our fringe players an opportunity to prove themselves. We will try to get some friendlies. Really, some of these boys deserve to get a chance in Equatorial Guinea."

I have no idea how Mashaba achieves these things. But with the cricketing Proteas and rugby Springboks both failing of late, suddenly Bafana Bafana have become the reliable source of national pride in Mzanzi.

Herve Renard, the Ivory Coast coach who conquered Africa with Zambia, sums it up best: “I think 0-2 was a very good for us, the South African team was everywhere.

"I think we had two chances and it's not enough to expect something in football. It's a good lesson for our young players, who know they have a big job to do.

“Congratulations South Africa. It was too fast for us today.”

The World Cup preview: predictions, graphic, how the groups unfold, first round results

Stuck at the intersection: Babb's hopeful graphic

What I love about this World Cup graphic is the simplicity of it. It takes us right back to 10-year-old mathematics and the intersection of groups.

And yes, it's accurate (even prophetic), based on the analysis and predictions of many football experts from around the world and compiled by a graphic artist called Babb somewhere in the heart of London at the Daily Telegraph (I think, judging by the twitter feed).

It shows quite clearly what I believe. That this World Cup, which kicks off on Thursday night with hosts Brazil v Croatia, will be dominated by the home continent, Latin America.

Still a hotbed for the beautiful game, Brazil will be sweating over the fitness of their iconic Neymar: his first season in Europe with Barcelona fell a little short of perfection but he remains the key figure... along with misfiring Fred, the striker with the world on his shoulders right now.


And there, in the "high hopes" area lie Argentina too, with a plethora of striking options which could see the little flea Lionel Messi using a cushion at times in the tournament, as the Argentine bench shuffles through the goal-scoring options.

Uruguay, with Luis Suarez struggling for fitness and Diego Forlan reaching pipe-and-slippers age, may also feature, though I'd look at Chile or Colombia as the third force at this world cup, the dark horses who could stretch in to a gallop if they survive the group stages.

Holders Spain, who have also won the last two European Championships, have to be among the contenders, along with 2010 beaten finalists the Netherlands and Germany, the best side in South Africa. But as I never tire of repeating: a European side has NEVER won the World Cup in the Americas.

England? They sit happily in the dead centre of our graphic. High hopes abound (as they have since 1966), but in truth, if they do well, they'll be considered dark horses in Brazil - and really they have to be considered no-hopers if the truth be told.


My assessment of the World Cup groups, showing the England/Italy/Uruguay/Costa Rica conflagration in Group D as the Group of Death and that Germany/Portugal/USA/Ghana showdown as second toughest in Group G (based ont he latest FIFA rankings) is HERE http://www.neal-collins.blogspot.com/2014/06/official-for-uruguay-italy-and-england.html.

Argentina have the easiest group. Brazil's is not as tricky as it might appear. A modest start is all that's required, plus the usual dose of good fortune, dodgy refereeing decisions and scorching goals in the knock-out stages.

We go in to every World Cup expecting shocks, but in truth, the big nations and the major names generally carry the day. I fear for Ghana, Africa's 2010 flag-bearers, only because the qualifying group is so irredeemably difficult. I pray for Nigeria, Cameroon and Algeria but really the Ivory Coast are the dark continent's only hope of a place in the last four, something Africa has NEVER achieved.

We will discuss the injuries endlessly, even with two days to go, the actually physical state of Suarez, Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar has been called in to question... but there are always replacements. For me, Brazil should hold sway with Argentina pushing them close.

If the Germans score as freely as they did four years ago, if Thomas Muller can show us his full range of skills, they could outshine the fading Spanish. But none of the European giants - nor the African and Asian hopefuls - will match the Latin Americans.


My group-by-group analysis of the qualifiers is HERE: http://www.neal-collins.blogspot.com/2014/06/there-can-be-no-better-way-to-resume.html.


Oh, and here are my first round World Cup predictions made on http://www.kickoffpredictor.com/

ROUND 1 PREDICTIONS 

Thanks for making your predictions for Round 1 of KICK OFF Predictor.
These predictions were made on 6/4/2014 2:03:55 PM
Your predictions are: 

Brazil 2

vs

Croatia 0

Mexico 1

vs

Cameroon 1

Spain 0

vs

Netherlands 0

Chile 3

vs

Australia 0

Colombia 2

vs

Greece 0

Uruguay 2

vs

Costa Rica 1

England 0

vs

Italy 0

Ivory Coast 1

vs

Japan 0

Switzerland 2

vs

Ecuador 2

France 1

vs

Honduras 0

Argentina 4

vs

Bosnia and Herzegovina 0

Germany 2

vs

Portugal 1

Iran 0

vs

Nigeria 1

Ghana 1

vs

USA 1

Out of Africa: the only way is UP for the Kaizer Chiefs African dream. Or is it OUT?

Unsavoury scenes: Chiefs surround referee Shikongo at Soccer City

PERHAPS the most telling quote on a painful Saturday night for South African football was THIS from Stuart Baxter: "My biggest regret is that, when the world sees officiating like they tonight, they laugh at Africa.”

He’s right. The 60-year-old from Wolverhampton has had a wide and varied career, ranging from Scotland to Scandinavia, Australia to Spain. And he’s rarely seen anything like he saw at Soccer City, where Kaizer Chiefs fell one goal short of reversing their 3-0 defeat against AS Vita in Kinshasa the week before.

And then of course we had Chiefs talking about withdrawing from CAF completely amid fears of a three-match ban from future African competition. Plus THIS quote (among others on Robert Marawa's MetroFM football show) from General Manager Bobby Motaung last night: "If you win against African teams away, you might be killed or not leave the Stadium."

To be honest, it's bad, but not that bad. But you get the drift of what Bobby is trying to say. Still, Chiefs chose to join the other seven Champions League rejects for this morning's April Fool's CAF Confederations Cup draw and will (presumably) play Ivory Coast's ASEC Mimosa in the play-off round for the group stages later this foolish month.

ASEC Mimosa were famously dispatched by Orlando Pirates on their run to African Champions in 1996, but they won the African Champions League in 1998 and have won the Ivorian championship 24 times, the last in 2010.

Had Chiefs pulled out - as they threatened to do for a few difficult hours on Monday - South African football would have been back in the doldrums after Orlando Pirates' epic journey to last season's final. But you can understand the thinking in the Motaung family corridors. As it is, they may well field a reserve team for the tie nobody is sure they really want to win.

So what went wrong with the Chiefs African dream? We can discuss the lack of AmaKhosi fans at the stadium on Saturday, the lack of atmosphere compared to their trip north the week before, the injuries to goalkeepers Itumeleng Khune and Reyaad Pieterse and the ankle problem picked up by striker Knowledge Musona.

But in essence, this was about the Namibian referee. Though Knowledge got the 10^th-minute goal Chiefs so urgently required, Rainhola Shikongo saw fit to deny the home side an even bigger advantage when he ruled out Kingston Nkatha’s 4^th minute goal with a dubious offsides decision.

Shikongo went on to deny two clear penalties – one an obvious handball, the other a shove in the box on Matthew Rusike – and despite a half-time lecture on time-wasting from AmaKhosi assistant boss Doc Khumalo, the referee consistently refused to rush goalkeeper Nguemba Lomboto who broke the six-second rule by handling the ball for 12 seconds or more at times.

Then there was the issue of injury time. With Morgan Gould finally producing the second goal in the dying minutes, Baxter was promised seven minutes of injury time. He said: “We were told seven minutes of optional time, then they said three. And when it got tight at the end, the referee only gave us 90 seconds.

“It’s hard enough playing in the African Champions League, but playing with an official like that makes it very difficult indeed. We were a better side than them, we know that.

“But what can I do? I have to say congratulations to AS Vita, good luck to them, I hope they do well in the Group Stages.”

Unlike Baxter, the Chiefs players chose to take out their frustrations on referee Shikongo, berating him verbally at the final whistle and coming close to a shoving match as officials rushed to intervene. A pitch invader or three added to the mayhem and Baxter groaned: “Our fans are behaving recklessly at the moment. But you can understand their frustration. It is frustrating when you see officiating like we’ve seen tonight.   

"The keeper was an embarrassment. Sometimes he took 15-16 seconds on the ball, it just got worse and worse.

“We get the second goal, hope the ref is counting the seconds the keeper took, but three minutes was a smack in the face. And we didn’t even get that.”

There is no question CAF competitions have a reputation for poor refereeing and dodgy away trips. Throughout the continent season-long unbeaten home records occur with a worrying frequency.

We had clues last season of course. Orlando Pirates’ problems at another DRC club TP Mazembe last season – a trip which included a television black-out, journalist detentions, confiscated sim cards, two penalties and an unjust red card – should have resulted in a lengthy ban for the Lubumbashi club. It didn’t. TP Mazembe were fined and went on to reach the final of the Confederations Cup with barely a blush of embarrassment.

For Baxter, the defence of AmaKhosi’s PSL crown now becomes the priority, along with a Nedbank Cup quarter-final against SuperSport United. You have to wonder how hard they will work to stay in the CAF Confederations Cup after all this.

The good news? Pieterse, who banged his head against a post making a save on Saturday, should be fit for tonight’s clash with rock-bottom Golden Arrows, and Khune should return for next weekend’s top-of-the-table clash against Mamelodi Sundowns.

The bad news? I understand Bernard Parker has been playing for some weeks with a heavily strapped ankle. Musona also has an ankle problem, picked up in the first half on Saturday.

With Sundowns, now level on points at the top of the PSL, to come on Saturday, Chiefs could find their season collapsing around them before the trip to the Mimosas. Baxter knows the mantra though: “Now we have to pick ourselves up and carry on with our season. We have to take this defeat on the nose.”

 BOLLOCKZ! my innovative football show on www.ballz.co.za airs every Thursday from 9am-11am. See Ballz' channel for our growing library of fascinating football interviews with the big names. 

You can also follow me on www.twitter.com/nealcol for all the latest sports news and read my “Neal and Pray” column every Tuesday in www.thenewage.co.za.

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The usual suspects: Africa's World Cup hopefuls head for the last 90 minutes of qualification with the "Big Five" favourites for Brazil

Brace yourself: Nigeria's Emmanuel Emenike

Nearly four years and an Arab Spring or two after the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, it’s the usual suspects who are looking likely to qualify for Brazil 2014.

Nearly four years on, Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Algeria – the five sides who qualified with hosts Bafana Bafana in the last global footballing saga – are once again the favourites to fill Africa’s ‘big five’ qualifying spots after the first legs of CAF’s unjust qualifiers.

Favourites Ghana don’t take on riot-ravaged Egypt until tomorrow night, when they play their first leg in Kumasi but Didier Drogba’s Ivory Coast and African Nations Cup champions Nigeria cruised to their expected first leg victories over the weekend.

Former Chelsea veteran Drogba scored the opening goal for the Elephants against Senegal with Lamine Sane then providing an own goal before another Chelsea old boy Salomon Kalou made it three in the 50^th minute.

Newcastle’s Papiss Cisse pulled one back for Senegal but it was Arsenal’s unwanted Gervinho, now playing in Italy for Roma, who pulled the strings for the Ivory Coast, playing a part in all three goals and setting up Africa’s top-ranked nation for qualification with a two-goal cushion.

The Cote D’Ivoire have gone 20 games without defeat in World Cup qualifying – they’ve won 14 and drawn six since a 3-2 loss against Cameroon in September 2005.

Nigeria coped reasonably well in Addis Ababa against South Africa’s Group A nemesis Ethiopia. The loudly backed home side, desperate for a first World Cup finals appearance, dominated early on and – after a goalless first half - deserved to go ahead in the 57^th minute through Behailu Assefa.

 But it was that man Emmanuel Emenike – who played for two years in South Africa five years ago with Mpumalanga Blacks Aces and FC Cape Town – who silenced the Walya Antelopes with an equaliser followed by a last-gasp penalty to secure a narrow away advantage before the return to Nigeria.

Game of the weekend came in Ougadougou where Burkina Faso saw off Algeria but gave away what could be two decisive away goals in a 3-2 win over visiting Algeria. The Burkinabians, finalists at AFCON in South Africa earlier this year, went 2-0 up through Jonathan Pitroipa and Djakaridja Kone.

Sofiane Feghouli and Carl Medjani made it 2-2 before Fortunate Dusseldorf-based Aristide Bance, who had a first half penalty saved by Adi Mbolhi, scored the winner from the spot after a highly-controversial 86^th minute handball decision. Algeria remain in pole position despite defeat though Stallions coach Paul Put insists: “We will go to Algiers with every intention of qualifying.”

Tunisia, only in the play-offs because upstarts Cape Verde fell foul of the rules, gave Cameroon a tough ride in Rades but couldn’t find a way past the Indomitable Lions’ French-based goalkeeper Charles Itandj.

With Chelsea’s experienced on-loan striker Samuel Eto’o returning for the umpteenth time after international retirement, Cameroon nearly snatched it through Peirre Webo. This one might be the tightest second leg of the lot, but Yaounde should be celebrating when the second legs are played in mid-November.

And what of South Africa? Held 1-1 by fellow-non-qualifiers Morocco in Agadir on Friday night, this from Dean Furman on Twitter sums it up:  “Solid showing for Bafana last night against a strong Moroccan side. Congratulations to the young boys making their debut. Hopefully the start of big things in the future.”

BOLLOCKZ! my show on www.ballz.co.za, airs every Thursday from 9am. See the Ballz channel on www.YouTube.com for our growing collection of interviews with the big names in South African football.

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Keshi and Nigeria: There can only be one winner

Where Eagles Dare: Nigeria coach Stephen Keshi

STEPHEN KESHI. Mastermind. Just when you thought Nigeria could go no further against the Ivory Coast in the African Cup of Nations quarter-finals, he wheels out the master-plan and surges to AFCON 2013 glory.

And just when you thought he’d be focused on the Confederations Cup in Brazil, he bashes off a resignation letter to the Nigerian Football Federation and announces his fiendish plot live on air.

Classic.

He had everyone running around pulling their hair out. Until this morning when he calmly told Sports Minister Bolaji Abdullahi he’d had another think and would stay in charge of the Super Eagles.

Presumably after he had explained how he wants to remove all those who plotted against him in the build-up to South Africa 2013 – and exactly what kind of package/car/retirement plan/medical scheme he wanted to go forward with.

The right honourable Mr Abdullahi called those “certain assurances” as the smoke cleared this morning.

This is no ordinary bloke. A winner on the field for his nation in 1994, Keshi spent time preparing for the big one with foreign forces Togo and Mali before he turned his eagle eye on the coveted double of playing and coaching in an AFCON triumph for his homeland. Only Egypt's Mahmoud El-Gohary had ever managed it before.

Right now Keshi is so far ahead of the men who tried to sack him before the 2-1 win over Cote d’Ivor he’s in a different time zone.

In England we’d call this a willy measuring contest. More polite cultures – like the USA where Keshi has spent a lot of time since playing for Sacramento in 1996 - might refer to such extravagant gestures as “strategizing” with a z.

In simple terms, Keshi is bigger than anybody in Nigeria at the moment. He has the trophy, he has broken the drought, he has knocked back the knockers.

Of course, he could have gone home, had a chat with the powers that be and simply agreed a new package. But this way, calling Nigeria’s bluff while he was still in Johannesburg, Keshi arrives in Abuja as an all-conquering untouchable.

He didn’t just see off Africa’s footballers, he has utterly destroyed his detractors. For now.

In a vast nation riven by all kinds of rivalry - particularly between supporters of former President Olusegun Obasanjo and President Goodluck Jonathan - sporting success can be a useful tool.

One widely quoted source this morning “close to the president” revealed: “Yes, it is very true that Keshi resigned his position as coach of the Eagles. That he confirmed to us. It was quite alarming given the complaints he brought up. There were a lot on things going on that the nation didn’t know.

“He informed us about backlog of salaries, his official car that has only been on paper since he took office. Even in South Africa, money was an issue. It is appalling but the key thing is that Keshi has calmed down and has agreed to continue as the coach of Nigeria.”

But he was never less than calm. By revealing how he’d been sacked before the quarter-final, how his fumbling federation had already booked tickets home before taking on Drogba and the Toure brothers, he has gone 2-0 up and we’re deep in to ego-injury time.

And then there were those classic quotes after the quarter-final triumph: “I don’t have anything against white coaches. Just those that are carpenters at home and coaches in Africa. “

Presumably a pale imitation had already been lined up by the Nigerian federation before their self-esteem started flooding back. But that is guesswork, as is the name of the possible replacement.

Then he was at it again after the emphatic 4-1 semi-final win over Mali in Durban: “If José Mourinho, gets a call from a rich team, he goes. I'm here for now, but if God grants me this AFCON, we'll see if there's anyone out there who wants me.”

That Keshi has now become the first African (South Africa’s Clive Barker could dispute it, but that’s another debate entirely) to win AFCON since Cote d'Ivoire's Yeo Martial in 1992 is a perfect epitaph to his bold outbursts.

Africa, perhaps the world, lies at his feet. Nigeria were never going to accept a public relations stunt like resigning to sports host Robert Marawa, despite his apparently regal status.

Nigerians at home and diasporically around the world honestly believe Keshi – with a little help from Emmanuel Emenike, Victor Moses and man of the tournament Jon Obi Mikel – could take these Jolly Green Giants to Confederations Cup contention and have the World Cup wobbling.

A Nigeria which has tried 19 coaches in 19 years since their last AFCON victory in 1994 simply could not allow Keshi to walk away. And he knew that.

STOP PRESS: THIS FROM KICKOFF.COM:

NFF President Aminu Maigari says he has not spoken to Stephen Keshi since the coach announced his shock resignation on Monday evening.

"I was as surprised as anybody else to hear that he had resigned because I never saw a letter from him. I employed him and there are processes in place for doing things.

If he wanted to resign, he should have shown me respect by informing me the proper way,” Maigari tells KickOffNigeria.com.

Despite Keshi having met with Sports Minister Bolaji Abdullahi into the early hours before agreeing to rescind his decision, Maigari said he had not spoken to the coach.

"I haven't talked to him. If he has something to tell me, he should come and tell me."

Abdullahi, however, said he spoke to Maigari before going into his meeting with Keshi. All three are on the same chartered flight taking the team to Abuja, but Keshi and most NFF officials avoided each other all the way to boarding.

Abdullahi admits that some friction remains, but says there will be time to resolve all that.

"This is not the time for that. For now we have resolved the issue and he will be staying. After the reception we will sit down and sort things out. Obviously, there are certain things that weren't handled properly, but we will have plenty of time to sort them out."

PLAYING CAREER

1979       ACB Lagos           10           (1)

1980–1984           New Nigeria Bank            42           (4)

1985       Stade d'Abidjan                13           (2)

1986       Africa Sports      22           (2)

1986–1987           Lokeren               28           (6)

1987–1991           Anderlecht         99           (18)

1991–1993           RC Strasbourg    62           (9)

1993–1994           Molenbeek        40           (1)

1995       CCV Hydra           20           (1)

1996       Sacramento Scorpions   16           (3)

1997–1998           Perlis FA               34           (4)

International

1981–1995           Nigeria 64           (9)

Coaching

2004–2006           Togo

2006–2008           Togo

2008–2010           Mali

2011       Togo

2011–    Nigeria

The road to Soccer City: all you need to know about tonight's AFCON draw in Durban

Coasting: Zambia celebrate in February this year

TONIGHT at 8.30pm, all will be revealed. The Chief Albert Luthuli International Convention Centre in Durban will show its balls and the African Cup of Nations, hosted in South Africa from January 19 to February 10, will show its true colours.

It’s only eight months since Zambia’s epic triumph in Gabon - the change of calendar from even years to odd means everything has had to be sorted out in 12 months rather than 24. After a condensed qualification process which doesn’t even allow group winners automatic access to the 29^th edition of CAF’s continental showdown, nobody doubts AFCON will be tough.

Tonight we find out just how tough when 16 balls are placed in four seeded goldfish balls to reveal who will play who on the road to the final at Soccer City.

The dream draw for Group A? South Africa, Angola, Niger and Cape Verde. The nightmare? Bafana, Nigeria, Algeria and lowly-ranked sleeping giants DR Congo.

We can only pray that the days of FIFA-sanctioned warmed balls and fixed draws are behind us. But whoever comes out with South Africa, qualification will not be easy  - especially if Didier Drogba and the Toure brothers are fit to play for the Ivory Coast. What we do know is that Bafana Bafana will kick-off the competition as the top-seeds in Group A with the opening game at Soccer City on January 19.

Their next two games will take place at Durban’s Moses Mabhida Stadium. Should they top Group A, they will then face a quarter-final in Durban too. But that would be expecting a lot from a side rated 10^th of the qualifiers according to the latest FIFA/CAF rankings (see table at the foot of this blog).

Though Bafana Bafana have not lost a game against African opposition on home soil since Guinea in 2008 (a 15-game list that includes Zambia, Senegal and Ivory Coast), Gordon Igesund has his work cut out if he is to complete the first of his harsh requirements in the job of national coach.

Igesund, with defeats against Brazil and Poland in direct contrast to wins over Mozambique and Kenya in his four friendlies since he assumed control from Pitso Mosimane and caretaker Steve Khompela, will have Bafana’s credentials tested by Zambia at Soccer City on November 14.

With African opponents yet to be lined up for friendlies on December 23 in Durban and Johannesburg on January 13, SAFA today have confirmed a friendly against Norway in Cape Town on January 8.

According to the powers that be at SAFA, Igesund HAS to reach the AFCON semi-finals – and he may find the going tougher than expected despite the absence of seven-times winners Egypt and four-time winners Cameroon.

More than 2,000 guests – including President Jacob Zuma – will fill the ICC tonight to see the deeply questionable CAF head Issa Hayatou oversee the draw which will see one team from each pot selected for the four qualifying groups.

Top seeds: South Africa, Zambia, Ghana, Ivory Coast.

Second seeds: Mali, Tunisia, Angola, Nigeria.

Third seeds: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Morocco, Niger

Fourth seeds: Togo, Cape Verde, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia.

That means South Africa could face a nightmare qualification featuring a resurgent Nigeria, Algeria/Morocco and DR Congo, raising the ghost of 2010, when Bafana became the first World Cup hosts to fail to qualify for the knock-out phases, going out on goal difference despite a shock win over 1998 Champions France.

The easiest route? I’d say Angola, Niger, the lowest ranked team in the tournament, and Cape Verde, shock conquerors of Cameroon in the final qualifying round.

If Togo don’t secure the release of Emmanuel Adebayor from Tottenham in January, they could be a plum fourth pot draw too, while Burkina Faso in pot three would be relief of sorts.

However the draw turns out, it’s worth listening to South Africa’s greatest footballing export when it comes to judging Igesund’s chances of success.

Lucas Radebe, in Durban for tonight’s draw, told CAF: “It’s going to be too difficult for Gordon. There’s a lot of expectation but I don’t think we can win it.

“People look back to the 1996 winning squad and what we achieved, but a lot has changed since that time. It's unfair on the current team.

“You look at 1996, we had a stable team. We had been together for a long time and had gelled well leading up to the tournament. Now there’s been chopping and changing of players.

“There’s a new manager as well. Yes, we are playing at home and naturally that should be an advantage. But if we get out of our group we would have done extremely well.

“It will take a lot of commitment and sacrifice for any team to win this competition. Look at a big team like Cameroon, they didn’t even qualify. The Cup of Nations is difficult to predict.”

"Once you’re in the knockout phase anything can happen. You can get all the way to the final but I don’t think we can win it.”

But Radebe told CAF online: “There has been a lot of criticism levelled at Bafana, but for next year, every South African will have to give the team full support. Home support is the biggest incentive we can have. It will surely uplift the morale of the players.”

Amen, Lucas.

FIFA WORLD AND AFRICAN RANKINGS OF THE 16 QUALIFIERS:

16           1             Côte d'Ivoire                  

24           2             Algeria               

27           3             Mali                    

31           4             Ghana                

41           6             Zambia                              

45           7             Tunisia               

51           10           Cape Verde Islands                        

63           13           Nigeria

75           18           Morocco

76           19           South Africa                     

83           20           Angola               

91           23           Burkina Faso                    

93           24           Togo                   

103         30           Congo DR                         

118         33           Ethiopia

137         42           Niger

Upsets, upstarts and uproar: if AFCON 2013 is anything like the qualifiers, South Africa is in for a rip-roaring January

Dakar moments: an Ivory Coast fan is lifted to safety on Saturday night

SO it’s official. The Confederation of African Football lists these sixteen nations to kick-off the 2013 African Cup of Nations in South Africa on January 19: Algeria; Angola; Burkina Faso; Cape Verde Islands; Democratic Republic of Congo; Ethiopia; Ghana; Ivory Coast (ranked 1); Mali; Morocco; Niger; Nigeria; South Africa (hosts); Togo; Tunisia and Zambia (holders).

But that simple statement of fact hides so much drama after an absorbing – and violent – weekend of AFCON final qualifiers. Every one of them comes with a story, a tale of triumph over adversity.

Just over 500km west of Africa, the Cape Verde Islands epitomise the glorious unpredictability of international football. I’ve actually been there. Now a tourist hub, the islands were uninhabited before Portugal “discovered” the archipelago of 10 volcanic lumps of rock in the 15^th century.

But the world’s 51^st strongest footballing nation will be among the survivors popped in to the hat when the final draw for AFCON 2013 is made in Durban on October 24.

On Sunday, playing against four-time CAF champions Cameroon boasting the world’s best-paid player Samuel Eto’o, the islanders held on to win 3-2 on aggregate in Yaounde after their shocking 2-0 first leg win in Praia.

The sold out 60,000 Ahmadou Ahidjo stadium was silenced by an early Antonio Pereira goal. The legend that is Eto’o – back after an eight-month ban for boycotting a game against Algeria in a row over bonus payments - made the equaliser for Achille Emana and then hit the woodwork as the football-mad nation of 20million attempted to overcome a group of rocky islands with a combined population of 500,000.

A late goal from Fabrice Olinga – a 16-year-old product of the Samuel Eto’o Foundation - put Cameroon 2-1 up and two goals short of qualifying, but they could not stop the delirious islanders from reaching their first EVER major tournament.

Afterwards, Eto’o threatened retirement and offered to move in to football administration in an effort to “clear up the mess” in Cameroonian football.

Though the Cape Verde Islands are unlikely to bring many fans to South Africa, the opposite applies to the Ivory Coast, Africa’s No1 nation, currently 16^th in the FIFA world rankings.

Their match in Senegal was abandoned after 74 minutes with the Ivorians leading 6-2 on aggregate after two goals from former Chelsea superstar Didier Drogba.

Amid frightening scenes at the Leopold Sedar Senghor stadium in Dakar, players and fans had to be escorted from the stadium by police, who reported 10 injuries. Senegal coach Ferdinand Coly admitted: "For the players, it was traumatic, especially the young ones. We are going to face some difficult days but Senegal will accept the sanctions.”

As yet there has been no statement from CAF, though they DO list the Ivory Coast as having qualified for South Africa on their official website yesterday.

Nigeria are also expected to be well supported at AFCON – particularly after their 6-1 triumph over Liberia - but there was no joy for Zimbabwe, pipped on an away goal by Angola after a brace from former Manchester United striker Manucho Goncalves.

Mozambique, 2-0 up after the Elias Palembe-dominated first leg in Maputo, were sent packing after a 4-0 defeat against Morocco in Marrakesh, while another of our neighbours, Botswana, went out 7-1 on aggregate after a 4-1 home defeat against a useful-looking Mali.

Former Arsenal and Manchester City striker Emmanuel Adebayor – now at Tottenham - was on target for Togo in a 2-1 win over 2012 co-hosts Gabon. The Togolese had a particular motivation behind their qualifying crusade, having originally been banned for the tournament for withdrawing from Angola 2010 when they were shot at by bandits on the way to the tournament.

South Africa’s World Cup qualifying rivals Ethiopia saw off Sudan on away goals after a 2-0 win in Adis 

Ababa made the aggregate score 5-5 but the rapidly improving Central African Republic, also in Bafana’s group fighting it out for Brazil 2014, were put out by a late Alain Traore goal for Burkina Faso.

Niger – Bafana’s nemesis in the last AFCON qualifying tournament - were going out against Guinea until late goals from Mohammed Chikoto and Issoufou Garba turned things around and made Niger, at 137, the lowest ranked team to make it in South Africa next year.

Equatorial Guinea, 4-0 down after the first leg against the Democratic Republic of Congo, went 2-0 up after 35 minutes in Malabo but the miracle recovery was not to be as Youssouf Mulumbu replied for the Congolese in a 2-1 defeat which put them through 5-2 on aggregate.

Any hope Libya had of overhauling a one-goal loss first time out against Algeria – officially the second strongest side in Africa - did not last long in Blida with El Arbi Hilal Soudani and Islam Slimani scoring within seven minutes and the home side cruised to a 2-0 victory, 3-0 on aggregate.

The 16 survivors from the original 47 who entered the tournament WILL attract fans to South Africa – the Ivory Coast’s host of superstars should help make up for the absence of Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana – but the failure to show ANY of the AFCON qualifiers on local television over the weekend was a disastrous marketing move.

Mvuzo Mbebe, CEO of AFCON 2013, has his work cut out. But if the tournament itself produces half of the drama of the final round of qualifiers, we should be in for a cracker after Christmas.

FIFA WORLD AND AFRICAN RANKINGS OF THE 16 QUALIFIERS:

16           1             Côte d'Ivoire                    

24           2             Algeria               

27           3             Mali                    

31           4             Ghana                

41           6             Zambia                              

45           7             Tunisia               

51           10           Cape Verde Islands                        

63           13           Nigeria

75           18           Morocco

76           19           South Africa                     

83           20           Angola               

91           23           Burkina Faso                    

93           24           Togo                   

103        30           Congo DR                         

118        33           Ethiopia

137        42           Niger