Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts

Thursday, 12 June 2014

AND SO THE WORLD CUP BEGINS: Brazil 3-1 Croatia with a helping hand from the referee (as predicted)

Neymaaaaaaaaar: Brazil open their account
And so it begins. The careful manipulation of the greatest footballing event on earth. With protests and stun grenades in the streets, FIFA couldn’t afford to see hosts Brazil get off to a bad start.

But they did. Right from that early Marcelo own goal, Filip Scolari’s fired-up side found themselves frustrated and flustered against a determined Croatia, who were never markedly outplayed by the Samba nation.

Neymar, as expected, produced the equaliser… but after Stipe Pletikosa’s early bravery his long range, poorly hit shot looked gettable for an international stopper.



IF YOU DON'T ACCEPT MY VIEW, TRY THIS FROM CROATIA COACH NIKO KOVAC: "If that's how we start the World Cup, we'd better give it up now and go home. We talk about respect, that wasn't respect, Croatia didn't get any. If that's a penalty, we don't need to play football anymore. Let's play basketball instead, it's a shame."



The second half just never unfolded like Brazil hoped it would. With the crowd getting increasingly agitated, the Neymar penalty winner I’d been predicting all day on twitter (feel free to check my timeline at www.twitter.com/nealcol) was almost inevitable.

Japanese referee Yuichi Nishimura watched Fred control the ball poorly and lean in to the defender before tumbling dramatically backwards. And without hesitation, he pointed to the spot. It was Fred’s most important – possibly his only – meaningful contribution in Sao Paulo. And as Ryan Giggs confirmed afterwards, it was NEVER a penalty.

Robbed: Croatia reaction
Neymar stuck the penalty away – though Pletikosa got both hands to it – and my twitter timeline was immediately swamped by those shocked that I had so accurately predicted the “Brazil must win” scenario.

The white sangoma had struck again, they said. I had thrown the bones. A dodgy Neymar penalty, just as I predicted. But in truth, it was always going to happen. There is no sorcery here. As I told Bloemfontein Celtic-bound Bevan Fransman as events unfolded, when you’ve watched as many World Cups as I have, you expect the dodgy decisions and obedient referees.

Croatia then pummeled the Brazil goal at 1-2 down and could have levelled twice before they put the ball in the net, only for Nishimura to call a foul on Julio Cesar in the Brazil goal. He didn’t even have the ball in his hands. A second glaring mistake.

Oscar – sparkling throughout – toe-punted a third past the hapless Pletikosa to seal the win and leave “experts” grovelling about an “emphatic” Brazilian victory on televisions globally in numerous different languages.

Oscar thanked God for the win, he should
have thanked Japanese ref Nishimura

Of course, it’s their job to “sell” the tournament when corporations pay millions to screen the World Cup. Around the world, analysts will talk of a bright, lively opening game. Four goals is a lot better than usual for the World Cup kick-off. Great start for the hosts.

At least the former Manchester United legend Ryan Giggs, guesting in South Africa, had the gumption to admit: "Fred went down easily. It wasn't a penalty. The referee made a clear mistake." But then: “We’re off to a flying start, an emphatic win for Brazil,” said Premier League presenter John Dykes at the end of SuperSport’s analysis which goes the length of Africa. Bollockz.

In truth, particularly if you’re Croatian, there was only injustice to speak of. The penalty, the disallowed goal. Obvious and calculated. FIFA know where their bread is buttered.

They can put up with a shoddy Opening Ceremony with a terrible sound system. They can accept unfinished stadia. But they can’t risk further angering the Brazilian people after their $11 BILLION spend on this World Cup.



AND HOW ABOUT THIS FROM South American football expert Tim Vickery on the BBC: "Protests are planned outside the stadiums for every game. How this pans out I don't think anyone knows for sure. Two situations could make things worse - police reaction, or the nightmare scenario for Brazilian authorities which is Brazil exiting the tournament early.
"Disappointing performances on the field could fuel the fire of anger. You do wonder if Brazil get hometown decisions more often because it was would be a disaster if Brazil exited this tournament early."



Any rational governing body would have a look at both Nishimura’s whistling and Pletikosa’s keeping. But they won’t. It’s done. We move on.

On day two, we see Mexico v Cameroon at 6pm CAT (a real chance for Africa to get off to a flying start, Mexico needed a play-off against New Zealand to get to Brazil); the momentous rerun of the 2010 World Cup final between holder Spain and Holland at 9pm and Chile against lowest ranked Australia at midnight.

Great games in prospect. But for me, the opening night leaves a sour taste. Not many will say that, but I’m afraid it’s the truth.

SOCCERBALLZ! my innovative football show on www.ballz.co.za with Mark Fish airs every Thursday from 9am-11am. See Ballz' channel for our growing library of fascinating football interviews with the big names. Ballz will also provide daily World Cup updates from next week.


You can also follow me on www.twitter.com/nealcol for all the latest sports news and read my “Neal and Pray” column every Tuesday in www.thenewage.co.za.



Thursday, 13 March 2014

CLOSE SHAVES AND SOWETO DERBIES: why Kaizer Chiefs will emerge triumphant in front of 90,000 on Saturday

Derby date: Majoro makes the switch



JUST when you thought it was safe to predict a solid Soweto Derby win for Kaizer Chiefs, along comes a wet Wednesday night in the PSL to put all prophesies on hold.

While Orlando Pirates – complete with new boss Vladimir “Work Permit” Vermezovic and substitute Lehlohonolo “Big Ballz” Majoro – sloshed their way to a 1-0 win over Moroka Swallows in the "original" Soweto derby, Platinum Stars ended the AmaKhosi’s four-month streak with a comprehensive 2-0 win at the Royal Bafokeng Stadium.

Shock swept the nation, much like the monsoon currently engulging us. Chiefs, unbeaten since Ajax Cape Town on November 5, went in to the game against Allan Freese’s unsung heroes on the back of an emphatic 7-0 African Champions League triumph over Mozambique champions Liga Muçulmana with Knowledge Musona slamming a quick hat-trick in Maputo.

This was supposed to be No 18. Stuart Baxter, who won the PSL and Nedbank Cup double in his first season at Naturena last year, completely under-estimated the Fokeng Crocodiles, ignoring the fact Dikwena had gobbled up the MTN8 and Telkom KO silverware before Christmas.

Mbax “rested” his three top scorers – Knowledge, Kingston Nkatha and the PSL’s hottest shot Bernard Parker – and opted to go with a rusty Katlego “Killer” Mphela up front on his own. Surprisingly, Wolverhampton-born Baxter also went with his infamous “three towers” formation with Morgan Gould, Tefu Mashamaite and Eric Mathoho forming a centre-back triangle, much like that one off Bermuda where people go missing.

Freese’s men never looked back. The impressive Siphelele Mthembu threaded his way through the trio of towers after just nine minutes to beat goalkeeping stand-in Reyaad Pieterse and free-scoring Malawian Robert Ng'ambi wrapped things up on the hour, chesting home the second on the far post.

Close shave: getting rid of the "Kaizer Chiefs unbeaten"
beard during BOLLOCKZ! at Ballz this morning
By then, the impatient AmaKhosi, gloating over their 17-match run of W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-D-D-W-W-W-W, were beginning to grumble. Even the arrival of Knowledge and Kingston failed to cheer things up. The leaders were well-beaten. The beard I started way back at the start of that run was GONE – I promised Stuart I’d shave when they lost, and I spent this morning presenting my football show BOLLOCKZ! while ridding myself of facial hair.

And throughout that high-quality clash in Fokeng, Orlando Pirates were producing a vital but unspectacular win at Dobsonville.

Kermit Erasmus, so poor in caretaker Eric Tinkler’s final game – a hugely disappointing 1-0 defeat at the hands of AmaTuks – did EXACTLY what he said he would and upped his game. The former SuperSport United man hit the post early on and then crashed home the only goal of the game to put a rare smile on VV’s face.

After his first game in charge, Vlad said before the gigantic clash against his former club: “It was the win we needed to lift the mood before the Soweto Derby. There is still a lot to be done. But I watched the reserves today, Klate, Sangweni and the rest are all ready to step up to the first team.”

With the Chiefs run broken and Pirates apparently rejuvenated by their new coach, those confident predictions of continued AmaKhosi success are scuppered. Mphela? He wouldn’t need Barry Roux to rid him of the “Killer” tag right now. He is entirely innocent, he hasn't produced a lethal shot in ages. For the first time this season, tough midfielder Willard Katsande was unable to halt the opposition’s flow, only Simphiwe Tshabalala appeared to be ready and willing on a difficult night in the North West.

And with the BIG ONE looming, it’s all going off. Majoro emerged after his brief first outing for Pirates since his controversial move from Chiefs to say he was prepared for the boo-boys at Soccer City on Saturday, eager to prove his point against his former team-mates. AmaKhosi captain and goalkeeper Itumeleng Khune, officially out for a month after spraining his ankle before Bafana Bafana’s record 5-0 defeat against Brazil, is now rated 50-50 to play in front of 90,000 in South Africa’s showpiece. A miraculous recovery.

And then there was Zeca Marques, the crest-fallen Swallows boss, telling us: “There is no justice in football. Senzo Meyiwa was Pirates man of the match, he made two great saves in the second half. No way we should have lost that game.”

And Zeca’s right. Pirates weren’t that impressive. Chiefs will have their three big guns back on Saturday. Baxter knows defeat in the Soweto Derby will put dangerous Bidvest Wits right back in it if they beat lowly Free State Stars in the evening game on Saturday.

That combination of results will put the Clever Boys firmly back in the Hunt, as Gavin will point out: a game in hand, three points behind.

Baxter is well aware of that. Chiefs can’t lose on Saturday. Pirates aren’t good enough to beat them. But a draw might suit both parties. Me? I’m going for an AmaKhosi win with Parker, Musona and/or Nkatha back in the starting line-up.

But this is the Derby. Only a madman makes predictions when Chiefs play Pirates. Form counts for nothing they say. So I’m sticking to my guns: Chiefs 3-1.


Whilst I was shaving, also spoke to Danny Jordaan, the SAFA president about the future of Bafana Bafana and our women, Banyana Banyana, on BOLLOCKZ! this morning. The interview is HERE:

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 BOLLOCKZ! my innovative football show on www.ballz.co.za airs every Thursday from 9am-11am. See Ballz' channel for our growing library of fascinating football interviews with the big names. 


You can also follow me on www.twitter.com/nealcol for all the latest sports news… and read my “Neal & Pray” column every Tuesday in www.thenewage.co.za.


BOLLOCKZ! is backed by www.topodds.com - have a look at their site for my latest sports betting advice and charity bets for our Wingzofchange charity!