The Bafana Bafana verdict: disappointing but not disastrous. AFCON 2015 is not over. Yet. KEEP HOPE ALIVE!

Ace in the pack: Oupa Manyisa after scoring in the 1-1 draw against Senegal

LET’S GET THIS STRAIGHT. The 1-1 draw against Senegal on Friday night was NOT a disaster for South African football. It was just another disappointment for the football-speaking nation to swallow.

It could yet prove to be a mere blip on the road to the AFCON final, though the Senegal equaliser felt more like a barricade to progress in a tournament which is there for the taking.

Having been told by then-unbeaten coach Ephraim Mashaba that the Group of Death was not a problem, things haven’t quite gone according to plan. Shakes targeted a five-point haul but already that is beyond us and when he insisted on packing “for six weeks” we were fooled in to thinking qualifying from Group C was a mere formality.

It’s not. It never was. Let’s get those qualifying permutations out of the way to start with, to avoid a repeat of the dancing at Mbombela four years ago:

South Africa need to beat Ghana, or they go OUT. That much is set in stone. SAFA, on their official facebook page, claim “a big win in the final game” on Tuesday could still see Shakes top the group. That, I’m afraid, is simple misinformation which went uncorrected for hours after I pointed it out.

In truth, the best we can do is second – if Senegal beat Algeria. If they draw, South Africa are out on head-to-head with the Desert Foxes as both will have four points. If Algeria win their final game – also played at 8pm on Tuesday – it goes down to goal difference with Senegal, who will also have 4 points. I suspect 2-0 might do it.

It’s never a good thing to go in to the final group matches in a tournament with the other two teams just needing to draw but Shakes remains upbeat: “We still have a chance, we are not out of the tournament yet,” he said “If we’d taken our chances we could have scored six in both games. We have played well in this tournament, we can still surprise you with our last game.”

Captain Dean Furman, faultless on the night, said much the same: “We go in to every match believing until the final whistle. That’s the way we’ve played this tournament.

"We take a lot of confidence from the two games, results didn't go our way but other teams struggled to live with us."

That’s true. At times Bafana have looked capable of competing with the best on the continent. Friday night was very similar to the opening 3-1 collapse against Algeria in Mongomo. Just as Rivaldo Coetzee went off injured after 23 minutes against the Desert Foxes, so Thulani Hlatshwayo went off complaining of double vision against Senegal after 25 minutes.

Then came the South African goal and huge hope just after half-time. A lovely finish from Oupa Manyisa just inside the far post made it 1-0 after 46 minutes – Ace’s first goal in 23 games for Bafana had the nation believing.

But once more – influenced perhaps by the loss of another centre-back - Mashaba failed to make changes as the Lions of Teranga came roaring back. Goalkeeper Jackson Mabokgwane came for a deep cross… then changed his mind. Tower Mathoho, otherwise faultless, could only look on as the huge Kara Mbodji, Anele Ngcongca’s Belgian club-mate, headed home. If Mabokgwane had stayed on his line, it would have been a comfortable save.

At 1-1, South Africa should have thrown everything forward, looking for the win. Risky? Sure. Mabokgwane made a lovely save in the dying minutes to emphasise the nature of that gamble. Mashaba, making text-book changes just after the hour-mark, turned to Bernard Parker for that final push.

And that was the alarming part. Bafana looked happy with a point for those final, edgy minutes. Tokelo Rantie never changed pace. Furman and the struggling Jali stayed fairly deep. The urgency, the desperation to win it, just didn’t happen, which is unusual for a Mashaba outfit. Senegal looked happy to settle for the draw, understandably.

Shakes, as the legend Linda Buthelezi said last week, is an old-fashioned coach. Africa’s Sir Alex Ferguson perhaps, with his goalkeeper shuffling and refusal to bow to public opinion, that classic refusal to slap down big name players like Thulani Serero – our only Champions League star – and Kamahelo Mokotjo, who picked up yet another assist for FC Twente in the Ere Divisie last night.

WORTH A LOOK: Moses Nku, www.twitter.com/chili_m2 offers THIS Bafana "forgotten eleven": Khune (capt), Mphahlele, Jele, Mashamaite, Masilela, Mokotjo, Mahlangu, Claasen, Patosi, Erasmus, Serero. I'd add Orlando Pirates' Lehlohonolo Majoro, Rostov's Siyanda Xulu and Buhle Makhwanazi of Wits to that list.

Shakes, who clearly hadn’t been briefed on what has to be done on Tuesday night to qualify, issued the normal platitudes: "Well done to the boys. We have created more chances than our opposition in both games. In the first game we lost in the dying minutes. Today we scored and couldn't consolidate - we gave it away.

"I think our biggest problems are regaining possession when we've lost the ball - we find ourselves wanting - and not scoring with the chances we've created. We should be top and the top scorers. We'll work on that. I'm happy and proud of the team."

Sadly, the nation will struggle to be proud of a team with one point at the six-foot-under end of the Group of Death. What Shakes needs is what Danny Jordaan promised me six months ago. A modern, well-qualified Technical Director. Somebody to push possession football, assess goalkeeping methods and smooth over rifts with big-name foreign players, Mashaba’s glaring weakness when he was fired from the same job a decade ago.

The SAFA president also claimed Mashaba would spend time with FIFA’s top man Gerard Houllier, the former Liverpool boss who is now the world’s top technical advisor. There is no evidence of that as he rushes about assisted by inexperienced Thabo Senong, 34, and yes-man Owen Da Gama. There are times when the Bafana bench doesn’t appear to be watching the game, they’re so busy rubbing heads and gesticulating.

But these are the normal problems. Nothing new. Much the same could be said of previous South African coaches, who progressed beyond the AFCON group stages in 2013 but failed to get past Ethiopia and in to the World Cup play offs.

Shakes, beaten just once in 12 games, will point to an impressive record in his latest spell in charge of Bafana. His quest to fulfil SAFA’s “Vision 2022” has been put on the back-burner with older players dragged in to the squad for Equatorial Guinea. But he has certainly revived Bafana’s fortunes and his passion cannot be questioned. His team talks, as I’ve said before, are terrifying and generally useful.

If the magic happens and Bafana make it to the quarter-final, anything could happen. Shakes, beset by Itumeleng Khune’s injury on the first day of his reign and Senzo Meyiwa’s tragic murder, could thrive in the knock-out stages. The man has always had the ability to confound the critics.

And for all that has been said and done about selection, four goalkeeping changes in four games and a lack of tactical acumen, we can - must - still hope for a brighter future for Bafana. Starting on Tuesday night at 8pm in Mongomo.

And as for the “sack Shakes” campaign? Forget it. He’s the cheap but sensible option. As I’ve said all along. Now where’s that Technical Director, Danny?

UNBEATEN. UNSHAKEN. The Mashaba express remains on track with a fitting farewell fling

IT'S ALL IN THE HEAD: unbeaten Bafana boss Shakes Mashaba

IT’S THAT MAN AGAIN. Ephraim “Shakes” Mashaba can do no wrong. He refuses to lose. For long periods at the Orlando Stadium, it looked like his Bafana Bafana unbeaten record was under threat. Knives were being gleefully sharpened for a meaningles friendly.

But the critics were dumbfounded once more. In the end it was a fitting send off for Bafana Bafana. Nobody got carried away – literally or figuratively, though Thabo Matlaba did go off injured – and those bright green 2012 African Champions Zambia were beaten 1-0.

That’s EIGHT games guys. Three wins and three draws in AFCON qualifying, then wins over the Ivory Coast at the Nelson Mandela Challenge and Sunday’s triumph, which could have – should have – ended 2-0.

For long stages of the first half, we witnessed the pesky Chipololo in a dominant role in front of empty stands. Possession was squandered, strikers were isolated, hopeful long-balls were punted. Blimey, even the SABC lost their signal from the ground.

After half-time, the crowd grew and the arrival of Sbu Vilakazi, Bernard Parker and Thuso Phala roused South Africa out of their slumbers.

By the time Phala, the former Platinum Stars man now at SuperSport United, got his well-taken 81st-minute goal, Shakes Mashaba’s unbeaten squad were starting to find their feet after a couple of weeks of festive upheaval.

But Mashaba is the king of mastering upheaval. You can shoot his captain, send him off to West Africa with the youngsters, shower him in ebola, injure key players, fail to report for camp and refuse to answer calls, miss two flights from Schipol, claim fatigue when you haven't got a club – but Shakes remains unruffled.

As the Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula roused from his Sunday slumber for a quick “well done” on twitter, Mashaba insisted: “There is no such thing as a friendly between two nations. There is always pride.

“Tactically we were superior of course, but we just couldn't finish, we couldn't get the goals. The heat got to the boys. I have no problem wishing  Zambia good luck at Afcon. They have not selected their squad yet, you could see they all wanted to be involved.

"I say well done to my team. We got the late goal, we got the three points. And we could have had more.”

Of course, the three points were imaginary on this occasion, as they will be in Gabon, where Bafana play (hopefully) Cameroon and Mali in friendlies before Afcon 2015 kicks off in Bata on January 18.

Oh, and the hosts are in all sorts of trouble. Though the draw favoured them – Group A is by far the easiest of the four – Equatorial Guinea and their imported stars have no coach, with Argentinian 50-year-old Estaban Becker set to take charge this week. He currently runs their WOMEN’s team. Honest.

So all in all, with Algeria suffering a couple of high profile injuries as they picked their 23-man squad, South Africa aren’t in bad shape. We can safely ignore the furore surrounding the axing of our only Champions League star, Thulani Serero. We can stop discussing the omission of those we foolishly imagined were key players.

As I have said before, all that matters now is the starting eleven for that opening clash with Algeria, currently Africa’s top ranked nation, winners of the African Champions League through ES Setif and 15^th in the world with their collection of French-born, French-reared stars.

DEFENCE: NO CHANGE

The back five – Daren Keet in goal behind Rivaldo Coetzee and Tower Mathoho with Thabo Matlaba and Anele Ngcongca – looks okay. They tend to lose possession, go long... and Tyson Hlatshwayo of Bidvest Wits would be my choice ahead of young Coetzee.

But why change a defence after a clean sheet? If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

MIDFIELD: ALL CHANGE

It’s in the midfield things MUST change. Prior to the substitutions against Zambia, Bafana were struggling for shape. Reneilwe Letsholonyane is banned for the opening game after his red card in the final qualifier against Nigeria.

But with Dean Furman joining the squad late after 88 minutes for Doncaster Rovers in the FA Cup against Bristol City on Saturday, there were always going to be changes.

Andile Jali, like Patrick Phungwayo, is carrying a knee injury, but Bafana’s medical team say he’ll be okay for January 19 at Mongomo. Obviously, Jali and Furman will hold the midfield against Algeria; I’d go with Vilakazi pushing forward in front of them and Thami Sangweni wide, though the Chippa United man failed to impress on Sunday.

ATTACK: ONE CHANGE

Up front, Bernard Parker will have to add width as well as fire power, Bongani Ndulula did not do enough to start for me. The big AmaZulu striker is impressive at times but simply disappears when the pressure is on, as it will be at Afcon.

Tokelo Rantie, who chose NOT to have surgery after his partial shoulder dislocation in November with Bournemouth, will be the spearhead. We must pray he doesn’t fall awkwardly for the next six weeks.

For impact, Thuso Phala looks a likely option though he missed a great chance to score a second against Zambia in the dying moments.

And there it is. A Bafana Bafana side without May Mahlangu, Kamehelo Mokotjo, Itumeleng Khune, Thulani Serero, Tefu Mashamaite, Kermit Erasmus, Lehlohonolo Majoro and Tshepo Masilela. Who would have thought it?

Shakes remains unbeaten. Shakes knows best. Even in the Group of Death, where Mashaba has set a target of five points, Bafana have a fighting chance. His parting words? "We won't be joining anybody in the next round of AFCON. It will be about who is joining us. We are going there to win it."

We come to praise Shakes, not to bury him: but questions need to be asked about that Bafana Bafana squad!

Unbeaten: Bafana Bafana boss Shakes Mashaba

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Let's get one thing straight from the outset. As I say again and again on twitter, SHAKES KNOWS BEST. Unbeaten in six Group A AFCON qualifiers and the Nelson Mandela Challenge, Ephaim Mashaba's record since taking over Bafana Bafana reads SEVEN games, THREE wins and FOUR draws, NO DEFEATS.


Again and again, Mashaba has confounded the critics. Right from that first training session at Mark's Park when Itumeleng Khune injured his heel, the "cheap but sensible option" has made a series of decisions which boggle the mind - but produce mind-boggling results.


Making the late Senzo Meyiwa his goalkeeper ahead of Darren Keet, and then naming him as captain, riled a lot of people in the Kaizer Chiefs camp. There was never any doubt the Belgian-based goalkeeper was the better choice but history will record - eternally since Meyiwa's still-unsolved murder - the Orlando Pirates No 1 kept a clean sheet in all four qualifying matches.


We talked too about his elevation of youngsters to the senior squad when they were not making the first team in the PSL. Yet Rivaldo Coetzee, hardly faultless in Ajax Cape Town's recent subsidence, was strong next to Tower Mathoho when he broke Aaron Mokoena's record as our youngest EVER international.


In midfield, Kamehelo Mokotjo, highly rated at FC Twente in the Dutch Ere Divisie, was flown out for those opening games against Sudan and Egypt... but never played. He went home frustrated with Mashaba (rather rudely) complaining he "looked heavy". He hasn't been seen in South Africa since.


Mashaba survived the "grabbing of the privates" incident against elderly Congo boss Claude Leroy and the banning of "fatigued" May Mahlangu but when Tokelo Rantie finally came good with two superb goals in Nigeria to put the AFCON champions OUT of the competition, Mashaba's star blazed beyond all others in our footballing firmament.


So when he announced the 34-man provisional squad for Equatorial Guinea, you could expect fireworks from the critics. But always, given the struggles of previous Bafana bosses Pitso Mosimane and Gordon Igesund, an underlying respect for Shakes prevails. His record as national team boss at all levels is hard to beat - he even got his beloved U20 AmaJitas past Cameroon to their continental championship while simultaneously taking over from Igesund at Bafana.


Incredible stuff. But that doesn't put him above critique. When he announced his 34-man squad, Shakes insisted there was still a chance for others to impress and make their way in to contention. But that isn't the point of a provisional squad. He must select 23 from those 34 in January, or the whole idea and the friendly against Zambia is pointless.

THE CHOSEN MEN: SAFA's official 34-man squad for AFCON 2015

My problems with the squad are no secret. I've been blocked by the Bafana Bafana twitter account and accused of treason by ardent South Africans, but the right to ask questions remains.

Here are my FIVE questions for Mr Mashaba:

1 How can you NOT select Itumeleng Khune, injured in early September on Bafana duty, but stick with Platinum Stars stopper Siyabonga Mpontshane, who hasn't played for his club since the Telkom KO final? Khune is fit again and on the bench for the last three Chiefs games, surely he should go in to camp on Boxing Day and prove he's back to his best in training? Match fitness cannot be applied to goalkeepers the way it is with outfield players.


2 Tefu Mashamaite, ironically the man who has taken over the captain's armband at unbeaten, record-breaking Kaizer Chiefs, is perhaps the most glaring omission. He plays next to Mathoho every week and is head and shoulders better than Coetzee and other rivals like Kwandakwentsizwe Mngonyama of Maritzburg United, who is currently playing in midfield. I won't even mention Siyanda Xulu at Rostov or Buhle Mkhwanazi at Wits.


3 Perhaps the best full-back in the PSL right now is another Kaizer Chiefs player, Tsepo Masilela. He has consistently out-performed his rivals but there is no room for him while Mzikayisa Mashaba and Nsikelelo Nyauza are not regulars at Mamelodi Sundowns and Orlando Pirates. Players who can't make their club first team being picked for Bafana is the prevailing theme.


4 As I've said above, Mokotjo and the now-banned May Mahlangu fail to find forgiveness from Shakes despite plying their midfield trade at a far higher level than the PSL in Europe. Obviously the all-foreign-based midfield will line up Ayanda Patosi, Dean Furman, Andile Jali and Thulani Serero but around them we have Vuyisele Wana of flightless Moroka Swallows and Asivele Mbekile from Sundowns. Two players who hardly leap to mind when discussing South Africa's top midfielders. Two players who, again, are not club regulars. What about George Maluleka and George Lebese? Or am I being biased towards the AmaKhosi, who lead the PSL by a mile?


5 Up front, Tokelo Rantie is currently out of action after sustaining a "partial dislocation" of his shoulder a minute after coming on for Bournemouth following his heroics for Bafana in Nigeria. It's unlikely the promotion-chasing Cherries will release him for AFCON let alone for the pre-camp on Boxing Day. Why not have a look at Lehlohonolo Majoro and Kermit Erasmus, around whom Orlando Pirates are finally beginning to build a two-pronged assault weapon? Bernard Parker's first inclusion in a squad under Shakes is a welcome addition, given his recent "glut" of three goals, particularly the brace against Bidvest Wits.


These five criticisms are not an assault on Shakes Mashaba's intellect. Neither is the bald statement that agent Tim Sukazi has more influence than he should have - the suggestion on the social networks is that he has NINE players in the squad, including most of the controversial ones. Obviously, having warred with Igesund over agent influence, I'm not going to get involved in all that again.


HOW BAFANA WILL LINE UP IN EQUATORIAL GUINEA


The truth is, the potential starting eleven is nearly as strong as it was in qualifying, where South Africa left the Super Eagles grounded - though I still find Mashamaite's ommission such a poor decision it seems almost sinister. Keet in goal, plenty of form full-backs, possibly Patrick Phungwayo and Anele Ngconca;  Thulani Hlatshwayo and Mathoho at centre-back. They'll do.

We have that "Eurocentric" midfield of Furman (whose stuttering Doncaster Rovers career will be finished by AFCON, methinks) and Jali with Patosi and Serero (whose absence at Ajax Amsterdam was heavily lamented by Frank de Boer today). Parker and David Zulu or Bongani Ndulula will probably start up front with last season's PSL player of the year Sbu Vilakazi an impact substitute.


To be frank, in a "group of death" featuring Algeria, Ghana and Senegal, a Rantie miracle cure would be very welcome. I dislocated my shoulder 34 times in my playing career, it's an unlikely dream. He needs surgery and intensive rehab, just ask Bryan Robson.


Sadly, with the official AFCON travel agents asking R145,000 to tour with Bafana, I won't be going to Equatorial Guinea when the Ebola-threatened tournament kicks off on January 17. But then neither will five or six of our best players, Khune, Mashmaite, Erasmus, Majoro or Masilela.


Having had my gripe over selection, having pleaded for the right to question (but not insult) an unbeaten, miracle-working national coach, we end thus: BEST OF LUCK BAFANA BAFANA. I suspect we'll need it.

GOING TO POT: Why South Africa have no need to fear the AFCON draw

ON TOP OF THE PILE: Furmidable captain Dean Furman leads the Bafana celebrations
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LET'S GET ONE THING STRAIGHT. When the AFCON 2015 draw takes place in Malabo tomorrow at 8pm we should be HAPPY. Proud to see our beloved Bafana Bafana in the draw.

As I have said repeatedly, South Africa have over-achieved in the four short months since Ephraim "Cheap but Sensible" Mashaba took charge at the end of July.

We were supposed to be building for a distant World Cup. Shakes was appointed with one eye on SAFA's "VISION 2022" philosophy.

The poor bloke was hamstrung from the start, touring West Africa with his Under 20 AmaJitas when he got the job. He won the Coach of the Year award for his success with the youngsters just last week. Then he stepped in to those huge national coach shoes again... and faced the multiple onslaughts of Itumeleng Khune's injury, Ebola, Senzo's murder and various players suffering fatigue and missed flights.

But tomorrow night at 8pm, Bafana Bafana will be in the draw. Qualified without hosting. In Pot 3. And mighty Nigeria, the Super Eagles, the reigning champions, are POTLESS. Steve Keshi took it on the chin from Shakes. And is still groggy.


I spoke to our "Furmidable" captain Dean Furman yesterday. I'm planning to link up with his dad Ronnie, a dentist in London, to brave President Theodorin Obiang's bizarre nation of haves and have-nots when the tournament begins on January 18 through to the final (hopefully for Shakes) on February 8.


Dean himself knows a month in Africa will do him and the other foreign-based players little good. He came on as a sub for Doncaster Rovers, struggling in England's third flight, over the weekend. And he admits: "It does present a problem for the European players but I would do anything for my country. I love playing for Bafana Bafana. When I left Cape Town aged five, I never dreamed I would lead my country.

"I would not swap that experience for ANYTHING. I'm hoping dad will be there to watch. I've got family in Johannesburg and Cape Town who will be rooting for me too."

But so much now appears to depend on tomorrow night's draw in a nation not known for fair play - they were suspended before stepping in as emergency hosts after Morocco's Ebola-phobic withdrawal and have been known to field oil-stained national teams devoid of a single local-born player.

16 teams qualified for AFCON. Seven-time winners Egypt and champions Nigeria are just two of the big absentees, along with Ethiopia, who put Gordon Igesund's Bafana out of the World Cup in our last botched qualification attempt.


Bizarrely, with South Africa seeded in Pot 3 due to our previous failings, it's Pot 2 which contains the really tough teams. Hosts Equatorial Guinea automatically drop in to Pot 1 with Ghana, 2011 champions Zambia and Burkina Faso.

But in the second pot, THREE favourites stand out: Ivory Coast (not the team South Africa beat 2-0 in the Nelson Mandela Challenge on Sunday, the one with Yaya Toure, Wilfried Bony etc etc), Africa's top current outfit Algeria (also known as France Mark Two) and Tunisia (number two in Africa).

Using purely numerical values here are the BEST and WORST case scenarios:


GROUP OF DREAMS
Equatorial Guinea (37), Mali (10), South Africa (11) and Congo (13)

GROUP OF DEATH
Ghana (5), Algeria (1), South Africa (11) and Senegal (4)

GOING TO POT:Pot 1
Equatorial Guinea (37)

Ghana (5)
Zambia (15)
Burkina Faso (18)

Pot 2
Ivory Coast (3)
Mali (10)
Tunisia (2)
Algeria (1)

Pot 3
Cape Verde (7)
South Africa (11)
Gabon (17)
DR Congo (12)

Pot 4
Cameroon (8)
Senegal (4)
Guinea (6)
Congo (13)

Still, no matter how it turns out, Mr Mashaba has assured us: "We are not just going there to make up the numbers. If anybody under-estimates South Africa, they will be made to pay for it."

And ultimately, it doesn't matter how the groups shape up. After qualifying top of Group A, South Africa may just be the team to avoid tomorrow night.

OFFICIAL: For Uruguay, Italy and England, it's Group D for Death. Argentina have it easiest...South Africa would have been the WORST side there

Have mercy: Rio's statue of Christ looms over World Cup

Less than a week before the World Cup kicks off on Thursday night, we have a NEW GROUP OF DEATH.

We always knew it was going to be tough for Ghana at this World Cup. Drawn in Group G with Germany, Portugal and the USA, we suspected the Black Stars would struggle to finish in the top two after narrowly failing to reach the semi-finals in South Africa 2010.

But today we can reveal Group G is NOT QUITE as nasty as Group D (Uruguay, England, Italy and Costa Rica) as we count down to the 2014 World Cup tournament which starts with hosts Brazil v Croatia on Thursday.

There is only ONE scientific way to rate a World Cup qualification group. It goes like this: add up the combined FIFA rankings of the four sides involved. The highest score equals the EASIEST group, the lowest score suggests the MOST DIFFICULT pool (otherwise known as the GROUP OF DEATH).

With FIFA’s last set of rankings before the big kick-off released yesterday, now is the time to check just WHICH TEAMS have the easiest task when it comes to reaching the last 16.

On that basis, with Costa Rica up SIX places to 28^th and England moving up one while Portugal slipped a place to 4th in the latest rankings, Group D can now be classified as the toughest group with 54 points while Group G is the second hardest pool with a total of 56 points.

Argentina’s Group F – shared with Bosnia, Iran and Nigeria – is officially the easiest pool on 113 with Group H (Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea) next easiest with a total world ranking of 109.

It’s also worth noting Group D contains the most top-ten teams (Three: Uruguay, Italy and England), while Group H (Belgium, Algeria, Russia, Korea Republic) offers no nation in that elite group.

The world’s top 15 teams are ALL involved, Ukraine (16^th) are the highest ranked nation failing to qualify. Denmark (23^rd) are the next highest-ranked failures followed by Slovenia (25^th) and, surprisingly, Scotland (27^th).

The lowest ranked team in the tournament is Australia at 62 with South Korea at 56. If South Africa, now ranked 65 after their draws against the Aussies and New Zealand last month, had qualified, they would have been officially the WORST team at the tournament.

GROUP BY GROUP

GROUP A

Brazil 3

Croatia 18

Mexico 20

Cameroon 56

TOTAL: 97

GROUP B

Spain 1

Netherlands 15

Chile 14

Australia 62

TOTAL: 92

GROUP C

Colombia 8

Greece 12

Cote D’Ivoire 23

Japan 46

TOTAL: 89

GROUP D

Uruguay 7

Costa Rica 28

England 10

Italy 9

TOTAL: 54

GROUP E

Switzerland 6

Ecuador 26

France 16

Honduras 33

TOTAL: 81

GROUP F

Argentina 5

Bosnia 21

Iran 43

Nigeria 44

TOTAL: 113

GROUP G

Germany 2

Portugal 4

Ghana 37

USA 13

TOTAL: 56

GROUP H

Belgium 11

Algeria 22

Russia 19

South Korea 57

TOTAL: 109 

OFFICIAL: The African Cup of Nations Group of Death is NOT South Africa's Group A! Here's how we know...

The only way is up: President Zuma draws Cape Verde last night

There is one simple way of showing – with a level of scientific accuracy but no footballing nous – why Bafana Bafana boss Gordon Igesund can be reasonably happy with last night’s yawn-a-minute AFCON 2013 draw.

It amounts to a simple mathematical formula for each of the groups drawn to compete in qualifying for the 29^th African Cup of Nations, which we now know will kick-off with South Africa playing the volcanic Cape Verde Islands at Soccer City on January 19 next year.

All you have to do to highlight the Group of Death is add up the current FIFA rankings of each team and the lower the total, the tougher the task. On that basis, we can come up with this:

GROUP A (Durban)

South Africa 76

Angola 83

Morocco 75

Cape Verde 51

TOTAL: 285

GROUP B (Port Elizabeth)

Ghana 31

Mali 27

Niger 137

DR Congo 103

TOTAL: 298

GROUP C (Mbombela)

Zambia 41

Nigeria 63

Burkina Faso 91

Ethiopia 118

TOTAL 313

GROUP D (Bafokeng)

Ivory Coast 16

Tunisia 45

Algeria 24

Togo 93

TOTAL 178

Clearly, on that basis, Group D is our Group of Death, rated 107 FIFA ranking points tougher than South Africa’s Group A, with all four sides capable of finishing in the top two spots and emerging from their pool.

But there are other reasons for Gordon to be happy with the draw. For instance Angola, Cape Verde and Morocco are three nations NEVER triumphant over Bafana in competitive action.

The nine volcanic islands of Cape Verde (there are actually ten, but one cannot sustain a permanent population), which lie 570km west of Africa, produced a footballing miracle by edging out Samuel Eto’o’s four-time winners Cameroon in their final qualifying round.

But with a population of just 500,000, the former Portuguese colony (uninhabited prior to discovery in the 15^th century) have lost both times they’ve come across South Africa on the football field, 2-0 in Bloemfontein and 2-1 in their capital, Praia. Sure, they've risen over 150 places in a little over two years but surely they can't travel all this way and stun Africa on January 19?

Angola saw off Zimbabwe to qualify – but only on away goals after a dynamic double from a bloke called Mateus Alberto Contreiras Goncalves in Luanda. The 29-year-old striker, known as Manucho, was due to be a great African star when he signed for Manchester United eight years ago, but he made only one competitive appearance at Old Trafford in three seasons.

As his career dwindles in Spain and Turkey, Manucho remains a threat. His 21 goals in 38 Palancas Negras appearances suggests trouble, but if Igesund can wrap him up in Siya Sangweni and Bongani Khumalo, the chances are Bafana will extend an unbeaten record of six games, three wins and three draws when the nations meet in Durban on January 23.

It’s Morocco, ranked just one better than South Africa, which should worry those headed for the Moses Mabhida on January 27. Though Bafana boasts two wins and a draw against a side slipping down the world rankings, Igesund will know the arrival of new coach Rachid Taoussi, in place of Belgium Eric Gerets, saw the Atlas Lions turn a 2-0 deficit in Maputo in to a 4-0 romp in Marrakesh in their final qualifying effort against Elias Pelembe’s Mozambique.

Igesund was all smiles after the draw at the Albert Luthuli International Conference Centre in Durban, which dragged on for nearly two hours after three too many speeches pushed Africa’s moment in the spotlight to a mere sideshow on a night of Champions League action in Europe which showcased so many African stars on Wednesday night.

Igesund, like all of us, held his breath when Nigeria emerged as the last ball drawn from the goldfish bowl. They ended up in Mbombela with champions Zambia and Gordon admitted: “It was touch and go! I though we were going to get the Nigerians! But look, all draws are tough and it was really a fairly good one for us. I think Morocco can be giants in Africa.”

Igesund’s counterpart Taoussi said: "It's a good group. It's hard, since South Africa is the host country and has home support."

Nigeria, who take on Burkina Faso first in Nelspruit, may be the shock troops of SA2013 with vast local ex-pat support. Coach Stephen Keshi, fresh from a 6-1 qualifying thumping of Liberia, played down his chances, insisting Burkina Faso, champions Zambia and Emmanuel Adebayor’s Togo are all “very good”.

But somehow, with the aging Ivory Coast in the Group of Death, a Nigeria v South Africa confrontation on February 10 at Soccer City seems as likely an African finale as any.

Euro2012 preview: Lionel Messi has a Czech mate

In Czech: Vaclav Pilar, Europe's answer to Lionel Messi

LIONEL MESSI has a Czech mate. When Euro2012 kicks off tomorrow night, all eyes will be on a 23-year-old called Vaclav Pilar when the Czech Republic takes on highly-fancied Russia.

Dick Advocaat’s Russia are among the pre-tournament favourites but the Czechs have qualified for every European Championship since the break-up of Czechoslovakia in 1993 – reaching the final against Germany at Euro96 with a side of shock troops that included Patrik Berger, Pavel Nedved and Karel Poborsky.

That record was under threat in October when they faced a play-off against England’s closest qualifying challengers Montenegro in Prague.

After a frustrating hour, it was Pilar who broke through with the first goal in a 2-0 home triumph to ease the passage of his nation, which at 18, is officially the same age as the new South Africa.

But it was playing for his club – the Czech champions Viktoria Plzen – that Pilar established himself last season as something of a European Messi.

Alongside the talented Petr Jiracek, Pilar shone as the unfancied Plzen finished third in a Champions League group featuring champions Barcelona and Italian giants AC Milan.

And when now-ex Barca boss Pep Guardiola picked out Pilar as the Plzen player who had impressed him most, the EuroMessi tag was neatly tied to his talented boots.

Since then, close pal Jiracek has gone to earn the big bucks with Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga - and Pilar is expected to make the lucrative leap to Engand, Spain, Italy or Germany soon.

But for now, the nation calls. Pilar says: "I don't think about my club fuure right now. I just fully focus on the Euro. But it would help me a great deal if I play well."

Still a relative international novice with nine caps, Pilar goes in to his first major tournament saying from the team’s training ground in Wroclaw: "I'm really looking forward to it. We're among the best 16 teams in Europe and my dream is to advance in the tournament."

Unlike World Cups, the European Championship rarely offers an easy game. After Russia tomorrow (8.45pm, live on SuperSport3 in South Africa), the Czechs have got 2004 shockers Grece and co-hosts Poland - who kick-off the tournament tomorrow night at 5pm (6pm in South Africa, also live on SuperSport3) to come in Group A.

Pilar says: "There are no easy opponents in this group or this tournament and I want to do all I can for the team to succeed. I haven't played many big games but I want to do my best."

While the Czechs may ease past hosts Poland - the lowest-ranked side in the tournament at 62 (that's six better than Bafana Bafana at 68) - to qualify with Russia, things will get no easier.

In the deadly Group B, Germany and Holland should emerge ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal and dogged Denmark.

Group C should see champions Spain through, with Croatia perhaps getting the edge over troubled Italy and unlucky Ireland.

England may just sneak past Sweden in Group D with France on top and co-hosts Ukraine at the bottom.

The final? How about the Dutch to end Spain's four-year domination of world football?

You can follow me through Euro2012 on www.twitter.com/nealcol, http://www.facebook.com/nealivorcollins, my Tuesday Neal and Pray column in www.thenewage.co.za newspaper and on Monday mornings on eNews and eTV Sunrise. And every Saturday I'll be on SuperSport3 with EuroZone at 4pm, starting this week. I've been asked to be controversial. Like a certain Mario Barwuah-Balotelli. Don't miss it!

Day eight wrap-up: Great Danes, Sad Socceroos, Double Dutch, Anelka Banished and Rooney Apologises

On the day Nicolas Anelka was sent home by France for insulting coach Raymond Domenech and Wayne Rooney apologised to England’s long-suffering fans, the World Cup provided unexpected late night thrills here in Pretoria.

I suspect not many changed their Saturday night party schedule for Denmark versus Cameroon at the Loftus Versfeld rugby stadium but hey, you might have been converted. A chilly night on the Highveld provided only the second come-from-behind victory of the tournament in 26 games as Denmark pulled off a 2-1 win. It could have ended 10-10.

The two no-hopers in Group E, after a literally and figuratively pointless opening round, provided seriously entertaining fare. It nearly rivalled the USA’s 2-2 draw with Slovenia (we won’t mention the injustice of that scoreline, it’s already been discussed at length) and Greece’s 2-1 win over Nigeria.

Cameroon struck early through the great Samuel Eto’o, formerly of Barcelona, now of Internazionale in Milan. The man who threatened to withdraw from the tournament when he was criticised by the legendary Roger Milla, really looked like Africa’s top player again, rousing the crowd and the continent with a great first-half display.

After just 10 minutes, the former African player of the year benefited from another mistake from Danish defender Simon Kjaer. After his own-goal in the 2-0 defeat against Holland, he played a terrible cross-field pass, picked up by Achille Webo.

He squared for Eto’o, who made no mistake to slot past Thomas Sorensen. And that was just the start. End-to-end stuff ensued, with Eto’o hitting a post and Dennis Rommedahl cutting repeated swathes through the Cameroon defence.

Somewhere in the middle of all the excitement, Arsenal’s lanky goal-misser Nicklas Bendtner slid in on a Rommedahl cross to level after 33 minutes.

A breathtaking first half was followed by a dramatic second. After 61 minutes, Rommedahl was at it again. Charlton fans may remember his searing pace – he played 75 games for them between 2004 and 2007. Undimmed by 31 years of being knocked over by stolid left backs, he tore past Jean Makoun and bent the winner past Hamidou Souleymanou.

Cameroon, desperate to prove a force in Africa’s first World Cup, hammered away at Sorensen’s goal for the last half-hour. But Africa’s highest-ranked nation in South Africa – they’re 19^th- couldn’t produce the leveller. Like Nigeria, they have no points after two games – it’s been a tough tournament for the continent.

Day eight of an increasingly absorbing World Cup opened with Holland joining Argentina as the only sides definitely through to the knock-out stages. Their 1-0 win over Japan was no classic but the magnificent Moses Mabhida Stadium was packed to the rafters with Orange shirts celebrating a second-successive win for their side.

The Dutch fans had closed the motorways between Pretoria and Durban – a five-hour, 400 mile drive through the snow-covered Drakensburg mountains – as they travelled in convoy to follow their side on Thursday.

Bayern Munich’s Wesley Sneijder scored the only goal after 53 minutes. His firmly struck shot with the light Jabulani ball which appeared to deceive Japan goalkeeper Eiji Kawashima, who could only deflect the shot off his palms and into the net.

Japan coach Takeshi Okada, who looked close to tears at times during the game, said: “Our players tried everything they could. I'm really sorry for our supporters.”

Dutch coach Bert van Marwijk wasn’t fooled. This was hardly a classic case of Dutch total football. He said: “You've got to be happy about winning your first two games. But we can play better than that, and we'll have to.”

Then Ghana and Australia fought out a no-prisoners 1-1 draw in front of 33,000 at the Royal Bafokeng Stadium – a result which leaves the Soccceroos hanging on by their fingernails.

Ghana saw off Serbia in their opening game while Australia were beaten heavily, 4-0, by Germany. But day seven saw Serbia shock the Germans 1-0 – Group D really may stand for Death.

The Aussies went ahead through the lively Brett Holman after just 11 minutes but disaster struck 14 minutes later. Harry Kewell blocked a goal-bound shot on the line with his right arm and was sent-off despite pleading “look at the big screen, I didn’t mean it” as Italian referee Roberto Rosetti produced his red card.

Asamoah Gyan stuck away his second penalty of the tournament and it looked like Ghana would take control – but by the death it was 10-man Australia who were doing all the pushing.

Aussie boss Pim Verbeek said: “I’m proud of the players – playing with a man less for that long is not easy. We’re still in the race but it’s going to be difficult now. We need to win against Serbia and score at least three or four goals. Ok, that’s the job.”

Look, I know I rattle on about these things but, unbelievably, they want me to speak at South Africa’s National Arts Festival on July 4. Yes, it’s ridiculous. Me? Arts? Anyway, here’s the details if you can make it:http://www.computicket.com/web/event/neal_collins_a_game_apart/148367625

Germany 4, Australia 0 from the men who gave you the Blitz Krieg. World Cup day three is done.

Tim Cahill, Australia’s only world class player, summed this one up neatly before the game: "Germany are always there or thereabouts, we know how good they are."

An hour after the big World Cup kick-off for Durban’s magnificent Moses Mabhida Stadium, Germany were cruising at 2-0 up and Everton’s gritty Australian had been sent off.

In the opening Group D match at Pretoria’s Loftus Versfeld rugby stadium, Ghana saw off Serbia thanks to a late penalty. But Germany, despite fears about their goalkeeper and the form of their strikers, were far more impressive.

The Group of Death seemed to breathe fresh life in to struggling Bayern Munich pair Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski – and the Germans appeared to relish playing without their skipper Michael Ballack, injured during Chelsea’s FA Cup final triumph over Portsmouth last month.

It’s not that the Aussies are a poor side – they threatened frequently – it’s that the Germans looked so lethal coming forward. The nation who perfected the BlitzKrieg assault on the defenceless 70 years ago had 12 shots on goal before adding their third and fourth goals broke Socceroo hearts in the 68^th and 69th minutes. Slaughter.

Could it be an age thing? Australia started the game with an average age of 31 years and 118 days; Germany 25 years and 76 days. This is their youngest World Cup squad since 1934.

It showed. Durban waited just eight minutes for their first World Cup goal when Germany went ahead through Podolski – who scored just three goals all season – and Klose made it two with his third of the season in the 27^th minute.

The second half goals came from Thomas Muller and Brazilian-born Cacau after Cahill had been sent off for a lunge at Bastian Schweinsteiger. Routine German performance. Efficient, merciless. And we needed a bit of a goal glut after seeing just eight goals in the first six games.

My day was spent largely on the road to distant Polokwane in the far north of this fabulous country. A six hour drive saw another goalkeeping blunder... you can learn all you need to know by watching http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKuXMoitNg4.

Slovenia ended up beating Algeria 1-0 to go top of Group C after the USA’s highly-fortunate draw with England last night. But given what I witnessed today, neither of these two teams will threaten the big guns. I hope.

Problem is the runners-up in Group C play the top team in Group D. And given Germany’s form tonight against Australia, that may be a difficult game in Bloemfontein on June 27.

Group C’s table-toppers will probably play Ghana back in Phokeng’s Royal Bafokeng Stadium on June 26. I’m rather hoping that might be England. But at this gloriously unpredictable World Cup, who can tell?

What we can say without threat of contradiction is that the first three days have gone well for South Africa. Six superb venues, six perfect pitches, four sell-outs. Can’t host a World Cup in Africa? Oh yes they can.

Neal Collins (nealcol on Twitter) is in South Africa promoting his first novel A GAME APART, the book you must read to understand the importance of this World Cup. For more details, see http://www.nealcollins.co.uk.

Emerton's Aussies out to murder the Group of Death

BRETT EMERTON and his rugged Australians are ready to take a stranglehold on the Group of Death when they kick-off their Group D campaign at Durban’s spectacular Moses Mabhida Stadium on June 13.

The unfancied Aussies open their campaign against Germany in the Group D which also features Serbia – beaten last week by New Zealand – and Ghana, who have lost the talismanic Michael Essien through injury.

Germany, the group favourites ranked sixth in the world, beat Bosnia 3-1 last night but Australia, ranked 20^th, are beginning to see the light as Serbia (15^th) and Ghana (32nd) struggle before the tournament. Emerton says: “I think it’s looking good. Talent wise we have a good blend of youth and experience and we could go a long way in this World Cup.”

Serbia followed their shock defeat against the Kiwis (ranked 78) with a goalless draw against Poland last time out. Ghana, without Essien, were crushed 4-1 by Holland while the Aussies were seeing off the Danes 1-0 in Ruimsig near Johannesburg.

Australia were the first team to arrive at their training camp in Kloofsicht, Muldersdrift, about 45 minutes from Johannesburg last Thursday. While their rivals are still contemplating jet-lag and altitude problems, Pim Verbeek’s Socceroos have been here for a week and Emerton insists: “From what I have seen in camp and in training the boys are physically in good condition and everyone is excited about playing in a World Cup. We are all in together and will do everything we can to ensure that each and every one of us is in the best shape of our lives.”

It seems like just yesterday Emerton was an ambitious young Australian pushing to play at the top level in Europe. Today he is 31, and his aggression and energy have made him a vital cog for both Blackburn and the Socceroos, where his history stretches back 12 years and 72 caps.

As he homes in on the Aussie record of 87 appearances alongside goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer of Fulham, Emerton recalls his days as a youngster in Bankstown, Sydney, when the 1990 World Cup was of interest to a small migrant minority. He grins: “For me growing up I loved the World Cup. Since we Germany in 2006 (where they were only knocked out by a last-minute goal from eventual winners Italy) football in Australia has really gone on leaps and bounds. This time we could really push football in Australia on to another level.

“When I was growing up, the interest was nowhere near as much as it is now. We played Greece in a farewell game at the MCG and there were just under 100,000 fans there.”

The Aussies will be cheered on in Durban by a vast army of fans planning to camp in a tent city at Durban’s Kingsmead cricket ground.

The Aussies generally start rugby and cricket World Cups among the favourites while the Socceroos have always been the outsiders – they are ranked a distant 125-1 to bookmakers Paddy Power this time.

But Emerton believes they’re a good bet for 2010: “It’s different. A lot of us boys have been there and done it before and know what to expect and know what hard work needs to be done in order to achieve a good result over.

“Hopefully some of the more experienced players are using that to rub off on the younger boys and hopefully, if we all put in the hard work together we can achieve great things.”

Tim Cahill and Australia have something special to off the Group of Death

WORLD CUP fever isn’t limited to South Africa. Australia, who open their campaign at the magnificent Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban against Germany on June 13, are ready to “do something special” according to Tim Cahill.

Cahill, who missed out to South Africa’s Steven Pienaar in the battle to be Everton’s Player of the Season, said: "For the last World Cup the nation stopped and there hasn't been a bigger event since that. It’s massive.”

In a nation where Rugby League, Rugby Union and the paradoxically-named Aussie Rules vie with Association Football for winter attention, Cahill insists: “Soccer is where it should be, up there fighting with the best. It is an honour and a privilege to play for Australia, to fly the flag.

“I’m fit and part of a squad fighting to do something special for Australia. I have been waiting for this for a long time."

The Socceroos were once a rare sight in the World Cup Finals – but since they were allowed to avoid a final play-off as Oceania’s champions against Latin America’s fifth-best nation, they are heading for a second successive tournament as Asian qualifiers, having impressed in Germany four years ago.

The 30-year-old, who made his international debut for Samoa aged 14 after being born in Sydney to an English father and a Samoan mother, said: “As a team we have improved one hell of a lot. The Asian group has been so difficult, playing against teams like Japan, Qatar and Bahrain - it has been as hard as when we last played Brazil."

Not sure about that one Tim. Qatar and Bahrain as hard as Brazil? Given the Aussies have been drawn the ‘Group of Death” with Germany, Ghana and Serbia, a bit of hyperbole is understandable. The former Millwall striker, so good in the air despite standing just 5ft 10in high, is getting the jitters as the greatest footballing event in the universe draws near.

He said: "It’s weird. We’re finally there and the domestic season is over. To have the World Cup finally here is a great feeling. My first expectation would be to get through the group.

“After that, we saw in the last World Cup that anything can happen. It is a World Cup final every game you play, it is 90 minutes of football and whoever is better on the day wins. Everyone is starting at level par and for me the aim will be to get through the group and hopefully make a few surprises.

"The statistics show Germany are always there or thereabouts. We know how strong they are as a team, so for us it is about concentrating on our strengths and trying to break them down slowly. They are slow starters in most competitions they play so hopefully we can catch them cold.

"Ghana are dangerous, being one of the strongest teams in Africa and having the powerhouses of Michael Essien and Stephen Appiah and a few other Premier League players. And the dark horses would have to be Serbia, I think they are strong as well."

So Tim. Break them down slowly – and catch them cold. There’s a plan. He adds: “It has been really hard but the players have improved domestically playing for their clubs. They are doing better and a lot more boys are coming overseas.”

True, they’ve got quite a collection of players from around the world gathering to join Dutch boss Pim Verbeek’s Soccceroos. In a nation where Australia’s cricketers and rugby players are generally in the shake up for the other World Cups, goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer (Fulham), diminutive stiker Scott McDonald (Middlesbrough) and Blackburn’s Brett Emerton are among 11 British based players who intend to give the Germans a run for their money in their opening game in Durban.

With the veteran Harry Kewell carrying an injury as the former Liverpool star arrives to join up with the squad from Galatasary in Turkey, Australia will be hard-pushed to improve on their performance in 2006, when they narrowly missed out on the quarter-finals in a last-gasp defeat to eventual champions Italy.

But Cahill, who has scored 19 goals in 37 games since being allowed to play for Australia after his junior appearances for Samoa, insists: "Our experiences in Germany will definitely help. We get the chance now to do it again. We are more experienced and have more game time under our belt, so maybe we can do something special."