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I SPENT yesterday going through the AFCON 2015 draw, held amid much hoopla in Malaba on December 3. Going on statistics alone, looking at how the balls came out of the pots, I can only conclude the whole thing was FIXED.
Look, I know Equatorial
Guinea came to the rescue when Morocco insisted they could not host the
tournament due to the Ebola outbreak – though the Moroccans did successfully hold the
World Club Cup this month.
So the emergency hosts
deserve some credit, despite being suspended for fielding ineligible players
during qualifying. Thing is, we all know Equatorial Guinea is one of the most
corrupt countries in the world, with a huge oil-driven economy which utterly
fails to look after the ordinary folk.
Some statistical back up:
Equatorial Guinea is the richest nation per capita in Africa since oil was “discovered”
in 1995, but less than half of the population has access to clean drinking
water and 20% of their children die before reaching five.
That’s why this tiny nation
was able to step in and host the event at such short notice. If Africa's longest-serving leader President
Theodoro Obiang, who has ruled for 35 years (that’s longer than Robert Mugabe), wants something, he gets it. Whether
his people are concerned about contagious diseases or not.
When he took power in 1979
he had Macias Nguema, the previous president, executed. And with a personal
fortune of $600m thanks to contributions from the likes of petro-giant Exxon,
it was hardly surprising CAF decided to lift the nation’s suspension and move
AFCON to his fiefdom, where Obiang has survived 12 coup attempts.
But the nation capable of
fielding a team of players ALL born in foreign nations surely have enough
advantages at AFCON when it kicks off on January 15. They should have been ready to hold a fair draw, having
not had to play qualifiers due to suspension.
Even the most cursory
analysis of how the cookie crumbled suggests collusion. And when you factor in
the current FIFA rankings and add them up, the inequality of the “random” draw
is staggering. STATISTICALLY IMPROBABLE is the best word I can think of.
My interest here is this:
while Equatorial Guinea were enjoying all the luck of the draw, South Africa –
after topping Group A in qualifying and putting out the reigning champions
Nigeria – were handed all the BAD LUCK in the world, having refused to risk
hosting the tournament themselves.
Now that can’t be just luck.
The Francophile nations and CAF president Issa Hayatou resent us enough already
but look at those pots: in every instance, Equatorial Guinea got the weakest
team, South Africa the toughest.
Sure, our hosts occupy a
nation two thousand square kilometres smaller than Lesotho, but they don’t
deserve a crooked helping hand from Hayatou and his cohorts, so firmly
entrenched at CAF. Despite his nation being suspended and in footballing chaos
at times, the 68-year-old Cameroonian has been in charge of African football
since 1988, before Nelson Mandela was released. 26 years is a helluva long time
in football, just ask Sepp Blatter.
Now look at those seeding “pots”.
As hosts, Equatorial Guinea were put in Pot 1 for the top-seeded teams. But
that’s misleading. Algeria (or Little France as they are now known, with most
stars born and coached in France) are the top side in Africa right now, but found
themselves in Pot 2. Ghana were the ones to avoid in Pot 1.
And yes, South Africa got
Ghana, rather than the less intimidating 2012 champions Zambia or Burkina Faso. For some inexplicable reason,
Burkina Faso found themselves in the same group as the hosts, despite being in
the same pot.
In Pot 2, South Africa’s
Group C were lumbered with the team everyone was hoping to avoid, Algeria while
Group A got NONE of those dangerous nations like Ivory Coast, Mali or Tunisia.
Instead, Equatorial Guinea
got Gabon from South Africa’s Pot 3 while unbeaten Bafana Bafana were landed
with the most dangerous nation in Pot 4, Senegal.
Confused? We all were.
Suffice to say Equatorial Guinea’s STRONGEST opponents are Congo, ranked 62 in
the world by FIFA right now. South Africa’s WEAKEST opponents are Senegal,
ranked 41 in the world and responsible for the qualifying failure of seven-time
winners Egypt in qualifying.
Statistically improbable.
That’s the phrase we’ll have to use. It would have been IMPOSSIBLE for
Equatorial Guinea to have had an easier group. South Africa’s GROUP OF DEATH
could not have been any harder.
Now I remember during the World Cup in 2010 when
Argentina’s legendary Diego Maradona alleged that “warmed balls” were used in some draws to ensure the big bosses got the groups and fixtures they wanted. I
always wondered if it was possible to conjure up a fixed draw in the glare of
the television cameras. I can think of no other explanation for the utter
improbability of this particular set of groupings.
I warned before the draw
that Bafana Bafana, disliked both on and off the field in the north of the
continent, would get the thin end of the wedge. Below you can see just how thin
that wedge is.
By adding the four FIFA
rankings of each of the nations in each group, it’s possible to see just how
strong they are. The higher the score, the easier the group. The totals are
self-evident.
Equatorial Guinea’s Group A
totals 325. That’s TWICE as much as the Group of Death. And way more than Group
B or Group D. See for yourself:
GROUP A
Equatorial Guinea 125
Burkina Faso 71
Gabon 67
Congo 62
Equatorial Guinea 125
Burkina Faso 71
Gabon 67
Congo 62
TOTAL: 325
GROUP B
Zambia 78
Tunisia 31
Cape Verde 33
DR Congo 60
GROUP B
Zambia 78
Tunisia 31
Cape Verde 33
DR Congo 60
TOTAL: 202
GROUP C
Ghana 35
Algeria 15
South Africa 57
Senegal 41
TOTAL: 148
GROUP D
Ivory Coast 25
Mali 58
Cameroon 40
Guinea 55
GROUP D
Ivory Coast 25
Mali 58
Cameroon 40
Guinea 55
TOTAL: 178
I’ve seen many draws in my
life-time. And not just in football. Often the home team or the favoured
association find themselves in a good position. But this draw is a step too far
for me. Clearly, something is amiss.
Still, having been quoted
R145,000 to join Bafana for all their games in Equatorial Guinea in January, it’s
unlikely I’ll be remonstrating personally with Presidents Obiang or Hayatou.
Just as well I guess.
Good luck Shakes Mashaba. As
I said in my last entry, you may need it.
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