Tiny cat savages enormous golden retriever. Not many hurt.

EXCLUSIVE: The SAFA statement that PROVES Thulani Serero had every right to report late for Bafana camp

THE BOYS, THE BOYS: official Bafana squad picture for AFCON 2015
taken this morning before they fly to Gabon tomorrow

JUST one last question for the South African Football Association in the wake of Thulani Serero’s controversial omission from Shakes Mashaba’s AFCON 2015 squad: can you explain THIS?

DOCUMENTARY EVIDENCE: SAFA statement, dated 29 December 2014

Yes, here it is, confirmation that Serero, South Africa’s only Champions League star, was only expected in camp on January 2. It’s all there, word for word. Posted on December 29, 2014. Go check it yourself at http://www.safa.net/index.php?page=articles&id=2645 it says: “Only two players will miss the training camp – Netherlands-based Thulani Serero, who is expected on Friday, 2 January while England-based Dean Furman will be in South Africa two days later (Sunday, 4 January).”

Yet on December 30, when Mashaba named his final 23 for Equatorial Guinea, Serero was AXED for failing to show up and Shakes said “He proved to be not as good as some of the others”.

What utter nonsense. What’s worse is that Mashaba and his SAFA cohorts then briefed the local football journalists on how to annihilate South Africa’s most talented player to protect their unbeaten coach.

The truth is of course, when Mashaba heard Serero was in Soweto before Christmas (he arrived home on December 22 to see family and friends) he “went berserk”, allegedly because Serero was telling people he was an automatic choice for AFCON from the provisional 34-man squad, which contained several players not currently good enough to play for their PSL clubs.

The SAFA statement actually proves that, in fact, Serero WAS an automatic choice, like Doncaster Rovers midfielder Dean Furman. Neither were expected to attend the Boxing Day camp, their places were assured. They had no need to join the camp and prove themselves. Much was made of the fact that overseas-based stars Andile Jali and Tokelo Rantie reported early… but they did so only because they were injured.

For Mashaba to unfairly exclude a foreign player is nothing new. Ten years ago he did the same with established world-class players like Lucas Radebe, Mark Fish and Quinton Fortune and, despite strong results, he was sacked for exactly that in 2003.

Mashaba is clearly going down the same route, stubbornly refusing to accept the demands of playing at the top level in Europe. Or is it something darker?

Much has been made of Dr Irvin Khoza’s recent admission that Bafana coaches have been “influenced by agents” and perhaps Shakes finds himself going down the same path. He picks unknown players represented by local agents but refuses to name proven European stars because their agents refuse to dabble in international selection.

If there is a different conclusion to draw, I am happy to accept it. But this article is an attempt to counter the appalling character assassination in the South African media over the weekend, where Serero was portrayed as “arrogant” and “unpatriotic”. The Sunday Times in particular went to great lengths to justify Mashaba’s questionable decision.

In truth, everyone knows Serero, in his own words “would love to have represented my nation at such a big tournament”. Ajax Amsterdam had written to SAFA requesting a Christmas break for their star and, according to the statement above, it had been granted.

With May Mahlangu banned and Kamahelo “Heavy” Mokotjo disappearing without appearing at the start of the Shakes reign, the Serero case is a further evidence of mismanagement and miscommunication from SAFA and Bafana which robs the nation of our finest talent.

Mashaba may be unbeaten in eight games, and we wish Bafana’s 23 all the luck in the world in their Group of Death later this month… but to my mind, SAFA’s statement PROVES Serero was unfairly dealt with. At the very least he deserves an apology, like the one he got from previous Bafana boss Gordon Igesund.

But we all know that will never happen.

THE BLOODY AGENTS: One small step forward for South African football, Dr Khoza. But what next?

Agents influence Bafana: Irvin Khoza

Regular readers of this column will know I’m never quite on the same page as Dr Irvin Khoza, the Orlando Pirates chairman who runs South Africa’s PSL.

I have to say, following his revelations on agent involvement with our national side, the Iron Duke is now one of my favourite people.

Here’s what the influential 66-year-old had to say on the issue which nearly saw me land in court last year: "I am saying this publicly. Unfortunately, for a long time, agents have been influencing the selection of players in the national team.

"That is why I was so hurt when people were saying there is no talent in the country. I said, 'no', the issue is the interference of the agents on some of our coaches.

"Shakes Mashaba has not allowed himself to be influenced and you can see the spin-offs. Every player in the country now knows that he has a chance if he is on form."

That last paragraph is the only one I struggle with. Mashaba’s selection of a number of agent Tim Sukazi’s players in his provisional squad for AFCON 2015 certainly raised a few eye-brows. The issue was not raised by me, but by rival agents. I will make no allegations on that front.

But selecting a number of players NOT EVEN PLAYING FOR THEIR PSL CLUBS is exactly the kind of clue real journalists look for when trying to expose inappropriate relationships between national coaches and desperate agents. Simply by naming those players in his 35-man group suggests there may still be a problem.

But for now, with Mashaba unbeaten in eight games and heading for Equatorial Guinea on a high, perhaps we should leave that debate unshaken.

Of far greater import is the admission from Khoza, a vice-president of the South African Football Association, confirming such shenanigans have taken place on a regular basis with Bafana Bafana.

When I queried the constant selection of Thabo Nthethe under the previous regime, just as the big centre-back was negotiating a commercial contract with Mr Price Sport, my world tumbled down. I was attacked on twitter, television appearances dried up, serious threats were made and Gordon Igesund slapped me with a defamation claim.

Here's a link to that particular episode: http://neal-collins.blogspot.com/2014/02/response-to-gordon-igesunds-legal.html

When SAFA president Danny Jordaan convened an inquiry under Norman Arendse, not a single journalist turned up to offer evidence, though many were privy to the selection of players for reasons other than “form and talent”.

Arendse and his committee were pleasant enough last year at the hearing in Sandton. They listened to my reasoning, heard how one player was actually banned and hadn’t played all season when he was selected for Bafana, I showed them the death threats and vile verbal attacks I had been subjected to.

But then they cleared Igesund of all charges. To say I was shocked was an under-statement. Having failed to reach the AFCON 2013 semi-finals and qualify for the 2014 World Cup, the man I’d once admired saw his side torn apart by Nigeria and fail at the first hurdle when South African hosted the CHAN tournament  last year.

Though they did not have the courage to nail agent/coach collusion, Arendse's panel DID ban future Bafana coaches from sharing player agents and recommended agents should NOT be allowed in the team hotel before international matches.

I assumed collusion with agents would be the last straw. And in many ways it was. But I was left hung out to dry. Though I know I was right to raise the agent issue, and have subsequently rebuilt my relationship with Mr Makaab, Igesund remains, according to my sources, a sworn enemy. Other “journalists” without the guts to speak out simply transferred their unthinking allegiance to Shakes Mashaba when Igesund’s contract was not renewed.

Those journalist know who they are. The Sunday Times reads like a SAFA public relations sheet, other publications gleefully carried Dr Khoza's words while glibly neglecting to dig deeper in to the story.

Though many of these same journalists turned a blind eye to previous Bafana coaches favouring the clients of certain agents in their team selection, SAFA continues to pay for these writers to travel with the national team as long as they didn’t step out of line with the latest incumbent.

The same has happened more recently. When I had the temerity to question the presence of three particular players in the provisional squad for AFCON – unknowns barely appearing for their clubs in the PSL but all represented by the same agent – both the Bafana Bafana and SAFA twitter accounts blocked me.

I received messages from friendlier elements within SAFA House warning me to keep quiet or face serious trouble. Many on twitter, some with accounts barely a week old, tore in to me, using racism and my English accent to suggest a lack of patriotism.

But now, thanks to the much-maligned but ever-powerful Dr Khoza, the truth is out. Though the stain of match-fixing and under-performance still taints our national side, there is a feeling the no-nonsense Shakes Mashaba is adding a forgotten lustre to the Bafana brand once more.

If Khoza believes agents were involved in the selection of the national squad in recent years, then it’s pretty hard to refute the fact, to slap me with legal action. Quite why the SAFA vice-president didn’t act on this knowledge I just don’t know. He was in the perfect position to stamp it out, surely?

But I will say this. South African football deserves better than grubby agents slipping names to national coaches. We deserve a sport where match-fixing and age-cheating are dealt with firmly and decisively.

GETTING TO GRIPS: me and Danny Jordaan

I expected the newly-elected SAFA president Danny Jordaan to get a grip on these issues. To use his vast FIFA legacy fund for the good of the game. To clean things up, encourage the grass roots, listen to the lone voices willing to expose the truth.

But Jordaan remains on the side-lines. The match-fixing scandal has not been dealt with. The hoped for clear-out at SAFA House has not come to pass.

Jordaan appointed Mashaba at least partly because, as he told me “Shakes was the cheapest option” not out of any great loyalty to local coaches. He simply couldn’t afford Carlos Queiroz, who had been told during CHAN the South Africa hot-seat was his once more.

Jordaan has allowed Mashaba to alienate the greatest current talents of our game, ten years ago the same schism between foreign and local players ended a successful reign.

May Mahlangu is banned. Kamahelo Mokotjo was dismissed as “heavy” despite impressive performances for FC Twente. And most recently, our only Champions League player Thulani Serero was publicly vilified by those journalists I mentioned before, simply because the Ajax Amsterdam midfielder believed he had the right to the same holiday as Doncaster Rovers’ Dean Furman.

Dr Khoza has taken us one step forward this week. He has laid bare one aspect of the corruption in South African football. Mashaba, who appears capable of garnering results no matter what happens off the field, could take us another step forward later this month at AFCON, though it’s the toughest of tasks with Algeria, Senegal and Ghana in Group C.

But, whether Bafana thrive or fail, then what? Who was Wilson Raj Perumal’s contact during the match-fixing controversy before the 2010 World Cup? Who turned a blind eye to widespread age cheating at the academies of our two top clubs at around the same time? Who decided to scrap the charity cup and Vodacom challenge in favour of the Carling Cup and Q innovation?

Why does Bafana have no overseas scout? Why did the players only find out about their AFCON fate from the media AFTER squad announcements? Who is keeping an eye on potential young stars pushing for international inclusion? Did Mashaba actually attend his stage 3 coaching course or was he just handed the certificate? Who is Thabo “Youth Encylopedia” Senong, and how did he become a major force in our game?

These are questions – not accusations – that require answers. There are many more. Falling attendances in the PSL are rarely audited or published.  Accredited journalists are kept off the mailing list to avoid awkward questions. The marketing of our game is a joke. The PSL is run for a select band of clubs and chairmen, not the players or the fans.

What should be the biggest, most successful league on the continent simply oozes money… but it never filters down to the grass roots, where schools and clubs play on fields more suitable for growing vegetables.

Dr Khoza has taken a step. Revealed one poorly-kept secret stain. He says there will be no more agent influence on our national side. But are we sure it’s not on-going? Is this the start of a campaign against corruption or a fabricated finish?

To be clear, I started this campaign when Abdul Bhamjee was in charge of the old NSL in the early 1980s. A much younger Clive Barker was in charge at Umlazi Bush Bucks then, taking on and beating the Jozi giants. But our game refused to progress, to run with openness and transparency.

I went in to exile for 25 years and returned to a brave,new, democratic nation as a South African citizen. To answers these questions with talk of my colour or some kind of hidden agenda is puerile. Let’s weed out the coaches, “technical directors”, agents and administrators who are destroying our reputation, holding back the national sport.

Ultimately, surely, that is the only solution. And while we're at it: how's that statue for Senzo Meyiwa going? Has anybody been arrested?

UNBEATEN. UNSHAKEN. The Mashaba express remains on track with a fitting farewell fling

IT'S ALL IN THE HEAD: unbeaten Bafana boss Shakes Mashaba

IT’S THAT MAN AGAIN. Ephraim “Shakes” Mashaba can do no wrong. He refuses to lose. For long periods at the Orlando Stadium, it looked like his Bafana Bafana unbeaten record was under threat. Knives were being gleefully sharpened for a meaningles friendly.

But the critics were dumbfounded once more. In the end it was a fitting send off for Bafana Bafana. Nobody got carried away – literally or figuratively, though Thabo Matlaba did go off injured – and those bright green 2012 African Champions Zambia were beaten 1-0.

That’s EIGHT games guys. Three wins and three draws in AFCON qualifying, then wins over the Ivory Coast at the Nelson Mandela Challenge and Sunday’s triumph, which could have – should have – ended 2-0.

For long stages of the first half, we witnessed the pesky Chipololo in a dominant role in front of empty stands. Possession was squandered, strikers were isolated, hopeful long-balls were punted. Blimey, even the SABC lost their signal from the ground.

After half-time, the crowd grew and the arrival of Sbu Vilakazi, Bernard Parker and Thuso Phala roused South Africa out of their slumbers.

By the time Phala, the former Platinum Stars man now at SuperSport United, got his well-taken 81st-minute goal, Shakes Mashaba’s unbeaten squad were starting to find their feet after a couple of weeks of festive upheaval.

But Mashaba is the king of mastering upheaval. You can shoot his captain, send him off to West Africa with the youngsters, shower him in ebola, injure key players, fail to report for camp and refuse to answer calls, miss two flights from Schipol, claim fatigue when you haven't got a club – but Shakes remains unruffled.

As the Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula roused from his Sunday slumber for a quick “well done” on twitter, Mashaba insisted: “There is no such thing as a friendly between two nations. There is always pride.

“Tactically we were superior of course, but we just couldn't finish, we couldn't get the goals. The heat got to the boys. I have no problem wishing  Zambia good luck at Afcon. They have not selected their squad yet, you could see they all wanted to be involved.

"I say well done to my team. We got the late goal, we got the three points. And we could have had more.”

Of course, the three points were imaginary on this occasion, as they will be in Gabon, where Bafana play (hopefully) Cameroon and Mali in friendlies before Afcon 2015 kicks off in Bata on January 18.

Oh, and the hosts are in all sorts of trouble. Though the draw favoured them – Group A is by far the easiest of the four – Equatorial Guinea and their imported stars have no coach, with Argentinian 50-year-old Estaban Becker set to take charge this week. He currently runs their WOMEN’s team. Honest.

So all in all, with Algeria suffering a couple of high profile injuries as they picked their 23-man squad, South Africa aren’t in bad shape. We can safely ignore the furore surrounding the axing of our only Champions League star, Thulani Serero. We can stop discussing the omission of those we foolishly imagined were key players.

As I have said before, all that matters now is the starting eleven for that opening clash with Algeria, currently Africa’s top ranked nation, winners of the African Champions League through ES Setif and 15^th in the world with their collection of French-born, French-reared stars.

DEFENCE: NO CHANGE

The back five – Daren Keet in goal behind Rivaldo Coetzee and Tower Mathoho with Thabo Matlaba and Anele Ngcongca – looks okay. They tend to lose possession, go long... and Tyson Hlatshwayo of Bidvest Wits would be my choice ahead of young Coetzee.

But why change a defence after a clean sheet? If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

MIDFIELD: ALL CHANGE

It’s in the midfield things MUST change. Prior to the substitutions against Zambia, Bafana were struggling for shape. Reneilwe Letsholonyane is banned for the opening game after his red card in the final qualifier against Nigeria.

But with Dean Furman joining the squad late after 88 minutes for Doncaster Rovers in the FA Cup against Bristol City on Saturday, there were always going to be changes.

Andile Jali, like Patrick Phungwayo, is carrying a knee injury, but Bafana’s medical team say he’ll be okay for January 19 at Mongomo. Obviously, Jali and Furman will hold the midfield against Algeria; I’d go with Vilakazi pushing forward in front of them and Thami Sangweni wide, though the Chippa United man failed to impress on Sunday.

ATTACK: ONE CHANGE

Up front, Bernard Parker will have to add width as well as fire power, Bongani Ndulula did not do enough to start for me. The big AmaZulu striker is impressive at times but simply disappears when the pressure is on, as it will be at Afcon.

Tokelo Rantie, who chose NOT to have surgery after his partial shoulder dislocation in November with Bournemouth, will be the spearhead. We must pray he doesn’t fall awkwardly for the next six weeks.

For impact, Thuso Phala looks a likely option though he missed a great chance to score a second against Zambia in the dying moments.

And there it is. A Bafana Bafana side without May Mahlangu, Kamehelo Mokotjo, Itumeleng Khune, Thulani Serero, Tefu Mashamaite, Kermit Erasmus, Lehlohonolo Majoro and Tshepo Masilela. Who would have thought it?

Shakes remains unbeaten. Shakes knows best. Even in the Group of Death, where Mashaba has set a target of five points, Bafana have a fighting chance. His parting words? "We won't be joining anybody in the next round of AFCON. It will be about who is joining us. We are going there to win it."

THE TRUTH ABOUT THULANI SERERO'S AXE: he arrived early, didn't report for Bafana. Was it miscommunication or arrogance that drove Shakes Mashaba "berserk"?

AXED: Thulani Serero, South Africa's ONLY Champions League star
PLEASE CLICK THE RED BUTTON ABOVE TO VOTE FOR ME!

THE story of Thulani Serero’s shock omission from South Africa’s final AFCON 2015 squad is not complicated. Nor is it particularly surprising. But, as a mole inside SAFA told me (see grab of DM below) it WAS very badly handled.

In the initial after-shock of hearing that Bafana Bafana’s only current Champions League player had been thrown out, head coach Shakes Mashaba issued a few surprising statements as he attempted to avoid the issue, much as Gordon Igesund did when confronted with the same player’s shenanigans a year ago in Durban (September 2013, that story is HERE http://neal-collins.blogspot.com/2013/09/thulani-serero-putting-barcelona-ahead.html

Mashaba, who lost his Bafana post despite positive results a decade ago for his unyielding attitude to big name foreign stars, told us: “There are other players who proved better than Serero”; that “It would take a year if I had to discuss this decision” and “I’ve dropped 11 players, we should talk about all of them”.

Technically, those were lies. Serero wasn't even in camp to compare him with other players. But understandable given the circumstances. Meanwhile Serero was on the official Ajax website saying he would "love to represent my country at such an important tournament".

Was this another case of Mashaba dropping a young foreign star while picking EIGHT tried and failed stars from AFCON 2013? Or did he have just cause for axing 24-year-old Serero, who appeared to have kissed and made up with both Igesund and SAFA?

Decide for yourself. Here’s what happened:

Thulani Serero, unlike the six members of the provisional squad based in Belgium and England, DID have a Christmas break. The Ere Divisie shuts down for the Festive Season  Ajax Amsterdam don't play again until January 16. So Serero leapt on a plane to his friends and family in Soweto, just outside Johannesburg, and was seen attending the Discovery football tournament before Christmas.

While Dean Furman, Anele Ngcongca and Darren Keet played over Christmas, Serero arrived in Johannesburg on December 22. I believe the flight booked for him by SAFA a week later was either cancelled or ignored. Meanwhile the local PSL players gathered on Boxing Day to prepare with Mashaba and his technical team, attending medical checks before an initial training session on December 28.

While Andile Jali (knee) and Tokelo Rantie (shoulder) turned up for camp early to have their injuries cleared after missing recent games for Oostende in Belgium and high-flying Bournemouth in England, Serero did NOT appear.

According to my source at SAFA, Serero was in Jozi and the surrounds telling players already in camp he was “an automatic choice” and would join the final Bafana 23-man squad for Equatorial Guinea on January 2.

And that’s the problem. While Furman, Keet and Ngcongca were allowed some leeway, Serero’s Christmas Break and early arrival in South Africa got the players talking. And word reached Mashaba who “went berserk”.

This is the true story of Serero’s exclusion. I am told Serero was not aware that he had to report for Bafana with the Boxing Day crew because he had a later flight booked. When I said that on twitter, SAFA Communications Director Dominic Chimhavi, an honourable man who does his job properly, told me I was mis-informed.

I asked him to correct me, get to the truth. I asked: “Did Serero arrive early in South Africa? Did he fail to report for Bafana? Did he know when and where to report?”

Chimhavi, who has subsequently deleted his tweets, confirmed: “That’s a yes to all three questions.”

Shortly afterwards the DMs and SMSs began arriving as Twitter responded to these revelations. Among the messages from angry SAFA officials, Bafana loyalists and agents claiming their players had to be informed of their fate by the media, one good source stood out.

Good source: my DM on Twitter revealing Serero details

I cannot name the bloke, but here’s what he sent me, you can just about read it on the screen grab!

“Same to you mate. I actually enjoyed the interaction. The young boy (Serero) shot himself in the foot, although the matter was not properly handled.

“He arrived in the country on 22 Dec, never went to camp but attended Soweto Games and boasted to those in camp that he will see them on 2 Dec.

“Shakes lost it. He went berserk.”

 I checked on the date and the source corrected it to Friday, 2 January – tomorrow, saying: “Sorry, yes Friday 2 Jan; making himself an automatic choice. These young boys!!!”

So there it is. Serero IS good enough, as he was during qualifying. Nobody should question his talent. His exclusion should have been truthfully dealt with. In fact, he should be banned as "fatigued" May Mahlangu was for failing to attend the last Bafana gathering, if SAFA are to be seen as consistent.

Our “Group of Death” AFCON opponents Algeria, Senegal and Ghana will be completely flummoxed by the arrival and departure of Serero and Ayanda Patosi, foreign-based stars who flew 18000km for NOTHING.

They will also question the absence of Mahlangu and FC Twente’s Kamahelo Mokotjo, cast out after travelling to Johannesburg, Khartoum, Cape Town and then back to Enschede without a minute on the pitch during Mashaba’s opening two Group A qualifiers against Sudan and Nigeria.

They will also wonder whether Rantie, the two-goal hero away to Nigeria in the final qualifier, is fit after his partial shoulder dislocation suffered during a minute-long appearance for Bournemouth in November. Certainly he has not played for the Cherries since as they lead the Championship, en route to the Premier League.

And Jali’s knee, which forced him out of Oostende’s last Belgian league game, will be a concern too.

But as I have said before, unbeaten Mashaba topped his qualifying group. He has a knack of doing the right thing when the critics stand open-mouthed. Apart from the mysterious absence of Kaizer Chiefs defender Tefu Mashamaite, I cannot fault his final squad given Serero’s tale.

The starting XI for Algeria on January 18 is all that matters now. With Reneilwe Letsholonyane suspended for the opening game after his red card against Nigeria, Chippa United’s Thamsanqa Sangweni – brother of Orlando Pirates former Bafana captain Siya – has to be a contender ahead of the likes of Thuso Phala and Oupa Manyisa, hardly burning up the PSL with SuperSport United and Pirates this season.

That leaves Sundowns midfielder Bongani Zungu, who scored in the Nelson Mandela Challenge against Ivory Coast last month, to provide width, something he did with some style in his early days at AmaTuks. Full-back Thabo Matlaba, not a fixture at Pirates right now due to squad rival Patrick Phungwayo, likes to get forward too and Parker tends to drift wide at Chiefs. Team-mate Mandla Masango provides a wide alternative, as does Phala.

Here's my AFCON starting XI to play Algeria in the opening Group C game on January 18: Darren Keet; Anele Ngcongca, Tower Mathoho, Tyson Hlatshwayo, Thabo Matlaba; Thami Sangweni, Dean Furman, Andile Jali, Bongani Zungu; Bernard Parker, Tokelo Rantie.

My source tells me Jali’s knee will be ready for Algeria, if not for the friendly against Zambia at Orlando on Sunday. The same applies for Rantie, who has not played for six weeks. Further friendlies against Mali and Cameroon in Gabon will give Mashaba room to experiment.

Feel free to tweet your Bafana starting line-up to www.twitter.com/nealcol or comment below. And please click on the red button above to vote for me in the SA Blog of the Year awards!

AFCON 2015 special: Farewell Thulani Serero, good luck Shakes Mashaba, the complete guide to South Africa's January jaunt

Ready for action: Soccer Laduma's Joe Crann's take on Bafana
PLEASE CLICK ON THE RED BUTTON ABOVE AND VOTE!

SO Ephraim Mashaba has added Thulani Serero, the world class Ajax Amsterdam midfielder, to his growing list of unwanted players, though he failed to explain exactly WHY when he announced his final squad for AFCON 2015.

With Serero joining May Mahlangu, Ayanda Patosi and Kamahelo Mokotjo in the list of foreign players not needed for Equatorial Guinea. the storm clouds are brewing for Shakes, who has had his job as South Africa's head coach terminated due to ignoring the big-name foreign stars before.

Personally, I think it's madness (and may have something to do with Serero turning up in South Africa but failing to rush straight to the Bafana Boxing Day camp) but Mashaba got through qualifying - with Serero - unbeaten and top of Group A ahead of the reigning African champions Nigeria. So the criticism button is on mute, We have to stick to the "Shakes knows best" hashtag for now.

But forget all that. Apart from the absence of Kaizer Chiefs central defender Tefu Mashamaite, I understand the Mashaba attitude to players he considers unpatriotic for putting their European careers ahead of national pride.

It's worth noting the average age of this Bafana squad is 25.3, less than a year younger than Gordon Igesund's 23 (26.2) at AFCON 2013 on home soil. EIGHT players survive from two years ago - Bernard Parker, Yeye, Matlaba, Ngcongca, captain Furman, Rantie, Manyisa and Phala.

But what happens next for Bafana Bafana, now that they have finally qualified for an on-off Afcon shifted from Morocco to Equatorial Guinea due to the threat of ebola and (some say) poor ticket sales?

With the PSL on hold until February 10 the next big step is the friendly against Zambia the Orlando Stadium on Sunday.

OFFICIAL: the final 23 names for AFCON 2015

The 2012 AFCON champions finished second in their qualifying group behind Cape Verde but are the ‘pot one’ representatives in Group B for Equatorial Guinea. I’d imagine Shakes will experiment a little in his final preparation on home soil, resting the foreign players, trying a few combinations in the midfield and up front with Andile Jali’s knee, Yeye's post-Nigeria suspension and Tokelo Rantie’s shoulder all worth considering.

The squad will then fly to Gabon, west and south of tiny Equatorial Guinea, where they will play a friendly against Mali – in Group D for AFCON – before their final warm-up against Cameroon – also in Group D - in the capital Libreville.

From there, they head to Mongomo, a tiny city of 7,000 souls right on the border with Gabon, which gave rise to current President Teodoro Obiang, who has ruled the nation since erm… 1979. Given the local dictator was born in the region, much has been done at the local stadium, known as  Estadio Santiago Nguema Eneme, with the capacity raised from 5000 to 15000.

Spanish pitch experts IberGreen claim to have relaid the dodgy surface in “record time” over the weekend, though it might still be a problem when they host the Group of Death, as South Africa’s gang of four in Equatorial Guinea will soon find out.

So how does the AFCON 2015 schedule look? First up: the opening ceremony in the Bata Stadium on Saturday, 17 January, starting at 4pm CAT, which will be followed by the opening game between the hosts and Burkina Faso an hour later.

On Monday, January 19, Bafana Bafana face what will be the toughest test of this tournament: Algeria in Mongomo, at 8pm. The Algerians, impressive during the World Cup, are now Africa’s top ranked side and with a FIFA ranking of 15, their gathering of French-born, French-bred professionals may not be household names around the world but they are a seriously efficient outfit.

On Friday, January 23, it’s Senegal with their array of foreign-based stars, including Newcastle’s Papisse Cisse, kicking off at 8pm.

On Tuesday, January 27, South Africa play Ghana at Mongomo at 7pm. Though former Chelsea boss Avram Grant has ditched some of the great names – Muntari, Essien and Boateng – they remain a potent force with Asamoah Gyan apparently back in favour. As I’ve explained below, this is by far the toughest group in the tournament. South Africa will do well to come away with anything from those three African giants.

If Shakes and his boys surpass all expectations and finish in the top two in Group C, they go to the quarter-finals in Bata or the capital Malabo on Saturday, January 31 or Sunday, Febuary 1.

The semi-finals take place on Wednesday February 4 or Thursday, February 4 at the same two venues.

And finally, the final at the Bata Stadium on Sunday, February 8, though the third-place play-off is on Saturday, February 7 at Malabo.

Phew. Sadly, few South Africans will be there to enjoy the action live. SAFA sent me the Champion Tours itinerary for Equatorial Guinea. Just watching the group games would set me back a cool R82500 but that rises to R145000 if Bafana Bafana go all the way to the final. Guess I’ll have to sell the family jewels to get there.

Given the draw, South Africa will do well to get more than a couple of points in Equatorial Guinea. I don’t think I’ve ever seen luckier hosts and less fortunate South Africans – and I’ve covered a lot of them, rugby, cricket, football. But nothing quite like how this tournament panned out.

Below, I’ve given current FIFA rankings in an attempt to highlight just how hard it will be for Bafana Bafana. The easiest team in South Africa’s Group C (Senegal, 41) are way tougher than the hardest team in the hosts’ GroupA (Congo, 62) and it’s surely not by chance.

This is how the groups breakdown:

GROUP A
Equatorial Guinea 125
Burkina Faso 71
Gabon 67
Congo 62

TOTAL: 325

GROUP B
Zambia 78
Tunisia 31
Cape Verde 33
DR Congo 60

TOTAL: 202

GROUP C
Ghana 35
Algeria 15
South Africa 57
Senegal 41

TOTAL: 148

GROUP D
Ivory Coast 25
Mali 58
Cameroon 40
Guinea 55

TOTAL: 178

Unbelievable draw that. Still, having been quoted the price of a family car to make the trip, it’s unlikely I’ll be remonstrating personally with Presidents Obiang or Hayatou. Just as well I guess.

Good luck Shakes Mashaba. As I’ve said all along, you’ll need it.

WAS THE AFCON 2015 DRAW FIXED? Hosts Equatorial Guinea couldn't be any luckier. South Africa get the Group of Death. STATISTICALLY IMPROBABLE!

SUPER EAGLES: Nigeria after 2013 triumph in SA
Please press red button above to VOTE!

I SPENT yesterday going through the AFCON 2015 draw, held amid much hoopla in Malaba on December 3. Going on statistics alone, looking at how the balls came out of the pots, I can only conclude the whole thing was FIXED.

Look, I know Equatorial Guinea came to the rescue when Morocco insisted they could not host the tournament due to the Ebola outbreak – though the Moroccans did successfully hold the World Club Cup this month.

So the emergency hosts deserve some credit, despite being suspended for fielding ineligible players during qualifying. Thing is, we all know Equatorial Guinea is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, with a huge oil-driven economy which utterly fails to look after the ordinary folk.

Some statistical back up: Equatorial Guinea is the richest nation per capita in Africa since oil was “discovered” in 1995, but less than half of the population has access to clean drinking water and 20% of their children die before reaching five.

That’s why this tiny nation was able to step in and host the event at such short notice. If Africa's longest-serving leader President Theodoro Obiang, who has ruled for 35 years (that’s longer than Robert Mugabe), wants something, he gets it. Whether his people are concerned about contagious diseases or not.

When he took power in 1979 he had Macias Nguema, the previous president, executed. And with a personal fortune of $600m thanks to contributions from the likes of petro-giant Exxon, it was hardly surprising CAF decided to lift the nation’s suspension and move AFCON to his fiefdom, where Obiang has survived 12 coup attempts.

But the nation capable of fielding a team of players ALL born in foreign nations surely have enough advantages at AFCON when it kicks off on January 15. They should have been ready to hold a fair draw, having not had to play qualifiers due to suspension.

Even the most cursory analysis of how the cookie crumbled suggests collusion. And when you factor in the current FIFA rankings and add them up, the inequality of the “random” draw is staggering. STATISTICALLY IMPROBABLE is the best word I can think of.

My interest here is this: while Equatorial Guinea were enjoying all the luck of the draw, South Africa – after topping Group A in qualifying and putting out the reigning champions Nigeria – were handed all the BAD LUCK in the world, having refused to risk hosting the tournament themselves.

Now that can’t be just luck. The Francophile nations and CAF president Issa Hayatou resent us enough already but look at those pots: in every instance, Equatorial Guinea got the weakest team, South Africa the toughest.

Sure, our hosts occupy a nation two thousand square kilometres smaller than Lesotho, but they don’t deserve a crooked helping hand from Hayatou and his cohorts, so firmly entrenched at CAF. Despite his nation being suspended and in footballing chaos at times, the 68-year-old Cameroonian has been in charge of African football since 1988, before Nelson Mandela was released. 26 years is a helluva long time in football, just ask Sepp Blatter.

Now look at those seeding “pots”. As hosts, Equatorial Guinea were put in Pot 1 for the top-seeded teams. But that’s misleading. Algeria (or Little France as they are now known, with most stars born and coached in France) are the top side in Africa right now, but found themselves in Pot 2. Ghana were the ones to avoid in Pot 1.

And yes, South Africa got Ghana, rather than the less intimidating 2012 champions Zambia or Burkina Faso. For some inexplicable reason, Burkina Faso found themselves in the same group as the hosts, despite being in the same pot.

In Pot 2, South Africa’s Group C were lumbered with the team everyone was hoping to avoid, Algeria while Group A got NONE of those dangerous nations like Ivory Coast, Mali or Tunisia.

Instead, Equatorial Guinea got Gabon from South Africa’s Pot 3 while unbeaten Bafana Bafana were landed with the most dangerous nation in Pot 4, Senegal.

Confused? We all were. Suffice to say Equatorial Guinea’s STRONGEST opponents are Congo, ranked 62 in the world by FIFA right now. South Africa’s WEAKEST opponents are Senegal, ranked 41 in the world and responsible for the qualifying failure of seven-time winners Egypt in qualifying.

Statistically improbable. That’s the phrase we’ll have to use. It would have been IMPOSSIBLE for Equatorial Guinea to have had an easier group. South Africa’s GROUP OF DEATH could not have been any harder.

Now I remember during the World Cup in 2010 when Argentina’s legendary Diego Maradona alleged that “warmed balls” were used in some draws to ensure the big bosses got the groups and fixtures they wanted. I always wondered if it was possible to conjure up a fixed draw in the glare of the television cameras. I can think of no other explanation for the utter improbability of this particular set of groupings.

I warned before the draw that Bafana Bafana, disliked both on and off the field in the north of the continent, would get the thin end of the wedge. Below you can see just how thin that wedge is.

By adding the four FIFA rankings of each of the nations in each group, it’s possible to see just how strong they are. The higher the score, the easier the group. The totals are self-evident.  

Equatorial Guinea’s Group A totals 325. That’s TWICE as much as the Group of Death. And way more than Group B or Group D. See for yourself:

GROUP A
Equatorial Guinea 125
Burkina Faso 71
Gabon 67
Congo 62

TOTAL: 325

GROUP B
Zambia 78
Tunisia 31
Cape Verde 33
DR Congo 60

TOTAL: 202

GROUP C
Ghana 35
Algeria 15
South Africa 57
Senegal 41

TOTAL: 148

GROUP D
Ivory Coast 25
Mali 58
Cameroon 40
Guinea 55

TOTAL: 178

I’ve seen many draws in my life-time. And not just in football. Often the home team or the favoured association find themselves in a good position. But this draw is a step too far for me. Clearly, something is amiss.

Still, having been quoted R145,000 to join Bafana for all their games in Equatorial Guinea in January, it’s unlikely I’ll be remonstrating personally with Presidents Obiang or Hayatou. Just as well I guess.

Good luck Shakes Mashaba. As I said in my last entry, you may need it.

http://peruserpaid.com/?ref=131468